EURUSD has wandered lower this week and in doing so has dipped below the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2021 high on the daily chart at 1.0942. What EURUSD price could not do was stay below the rising 100-day moving average currently at 1.09193. This moving average was tested on Wednesday and Thursday, and each test found supportive buyers. On Friday, the price moved higher and moved away from both the 50% retracement and the 100-day moving average. This tilts the technical bias further to the upside at the start of the new trading week.
Moving down to the hourly chart, today’s rally to the upside may have exceeded the 100 hourly moving average currently at 1.09677 and the 200 hourly moving average currently at 1.1003. Additionally, a corrective move in the US session held support against this 200 hourly moving average before moving to new session highs over the past few hours.
What the rally was unable to do was break above the 38.2% retracement of the downtrend from the July 18 high to yesterday’s low. This level is located at 1.10502. Today’s high price has so far reached 1.10412.
Next week (looking forward), if the buyers want to gain more control, they need to reach and stay above the 38.2% retracement. If they can, the short-term bias would tilt the bias further up with the 50% midpoint of the move down from the July high at 1.1093, and a swing zone near 1 .11483 as the next key target areas.
In this video, I outline the levels and lay out the trading strategy for next week’s trading given the technicalities involved on the daily and hourly charts.