Hello and welcome to our continued coverage of the global economy, financial markets, euro area and business.
UK business payrolls have returned to pre-pandemic levels and vacancies are at an all time high, as the long recovery from the Covid-19 crisis continues.
The latest unemployment report, which has just been published, shows that “the labor market continues to recover,” according to the Office for National Statistics.
The number of salaried employees rose by 241,000 in August to 29.1 million, returning to levels seen in February 2020 before the first lockdown.
All regions except London, Scotland and the South East are now above pre-pandemic levels, the ONS reports.
And despite this increase in the wage bill, vacancies are at an all-time high as businesses across the economy struggle to fill positions, especially in the hospitality, transportation and industry sectors. storage.
The number of job vacancies from June to August 2021 was 1,034,000 – after crossing one million for the first time since the record started this summer – and is now 249,000 above pre-January pandemic levels until March 2020.
The ONS explains:
Job vacancies increased by 269,300 (35.2%) in the June to August 2021 quarter, with all industry sectors increasing their number of job vacancies and the majority reaching record levels; the largest increase was observed in accommodation and food services, which increased by 57,600 (75.4%).
The data comes just weeks before the end of the UK’s job protection scheme – unions and industry lobby groups warning of an increase in layoffs as employers, many of whom struggle to deal with the impact of the Delta variant, are preparing to resume staff.
The ONS also reports that the unemployment rate was 4.6% in the three months ending July, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous quarter.
The employment rate increased 0.5 percentage points in the most recent quarter to 75.2%.
More details and reactions to follow ….
Also coming today
Investors are bracing for the latest US inflation report, which will show whether consumer prices are still rising at the fastest rate in 13 years.
US CPI figures this afternoon could make reading uncomfortable for US policymakers next week, especially if it follows the upward trend in US ex-factory prices for August, says Michael Hewson of CMC Markets.
In July, there was some relief that the US CPI remained stable at 5.4%, raising the possibility that we saw a spike. More encouragingly, the core CPI rose from 4.5% in June to 4.3% in July, but while central bankers seem bullish on price increases, US consumers are certainly not if the New York Fed’s latest survey of inflation expectations is something to see. . Consumer inflation expectations over the next three years are 4%, compared to 5.2% year on year.
The biggest concern, aside from the surges in energy prices, which are quite worrying, was the continued rise in the PPI last week to 8.3%, from 7.8%, which suggests that we do not ‘ve may have seen a pause in the bullish trajectory. in the prices.
We also receive the latest assessment of the oil market from the IEA.
And Chancellor Rishi Sunak is hosting some of the UK’s biggest tech companies at an inaugural conference, called Treasury Connect, in east London.
European stock markets should open up:
- 7am BST: UK unemployment report
- 9 a.m. BST: IEA monthly report on the oil market
- 1:30 p.m. BST: US consumer price inflation for August