Israel Adesanya will defend his UFC middleweight title against Marvin Vettori – the first opponent to go the distance with him – at UFC 263 at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Ariz. On Saturday.
MORE: UFC 263 date, start time, odds, PPV schedule and card for Adesanya-Vettori 2
Adesanya and Vettori met in 2018 when they were both relatively new to the MMA promotion. Adesanya was widely recognized as a knockout artist, but Vettori managed to go the distance and lost by a narrow split decision that he still challenges to this day. Since that fight, Adesanya has won the 185-pound title and returned to the division after being unable to defeat Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight title last March. Adesanya aims to remain undefeated in the division and push back an enraged Vettori.
Vettori has won five consecutive victories since losing to Adesanya. He dominated his opponents with his fight, leading to four unanimous decisions and one victory by submission. He aims to use his strikeouts again to neutralize Adesanya’s strike and plans to take away his rival’s title.
Here are the betting odds to help you in your selection.
All odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori UFC 263 odds
Israel Adesanya: -280
Marvin Vettori: +220
Prize Draw: +5000
According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Adesanya is the favorite at -280 with Vettori the underdog at +220. With these odds, one would have to bet $ 280 on Adesanya to make a profit of $ 100. A $ 100 bet on Vettori would net $ 220.
Bets on Adesanya vs. Vettori props
- Adesanya by (T) KO: +170
- Adesanya per submission: +2600
- Adesanya by decision: +155
- Vettori by (T) KO: +1100
- Vettori per submission: +1100
- Vettori by decision: +420
Prediction Adesanya vs Vettori
Much has changed since Adesanya and Vettori last met. In addition to becoming a middleweight champion, Adesanya nearly cleaned up the 185-pound division with wins over Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero, Robert Whittaker, Kelvin Gastelum and Anderson Silva. He remains arguably the best pure forward in the UFC and has shown a significant improvement in his strikeout defense. After being blamed twice against Vettori, Adesanya has only been knocked out twice, in total, in seven middleweight bouts. Adesanya’s ability to control distance and find a comfortable hitting range has also improved from the last two encounters.
But Vettori’s confidence has grown with his last five wins. They’ve all been relatively dominant, with his superior control and strikeouts some of the best in the division. He was also impressive in defense and demonstrated a rock solid chin. He is by no means a knockout artist, but a useful striker.
His margin of error is relatively small against Adesanya; he will have to find his way inside without getting caught. It’s equally unlikely that Adesanya scores a submission that Vettori eliminates the champion. Neither has ever been completed in their professional MMA careers, but Adesanya is phenomenal at setting traps for overzealous opponents, as evidenced by his saves from Whittaker and Costa. But given Vettori’s durability and the likelihood that he will be looking for a takedown right from the opening bell, it seems safer and more valuable to bet on Adesanya to win by decision at +155 rather than him. bet directly to -280.
This value is in jeopardy as Adesanya is a phenomenal finisher who creates opportunities to end a fight at any time. And if Vettori is stupid enough to stay ahead of him for an extended period of time, he could find himself suffering the first knockout loss of his career.
Ultimately, Adesanya is too skillful in his strike to lose to Vettori, and as long as he continues to show better defense against strikeouts, he should surpass his opponent and retain his title.
Sporting News’ choice: Adesanya by decision (+155)