TV interview: what cards in Macron’s game? – Pension reform

Dissolve. EXCLUDED

The tenors of the majority had it filtered this Tuesday morning: no announcement of the dissolution of the Assembly to be expected from Emmanuel Macron, after the forceps adoption of the pension bill. Which is, in itself, no surprise. “When you are at this point in a cycle of unpopularity and rejection of a major reform, it is almost suicidal”, analyzes political scientist Brice Teinturier, pointing to the risk of an even narrower majority. According to the Ifop-JDD barometer, the rating of the President of the Republic today stands at 28% favorable opinions, its lowest level since the yellow vests crisis. And maybe even lower, this survey having been carried out before the announcement of 49.3. Other closed doors: that of a withdrawal of the text and that of a referendum.

Redesign. NOT IMMEDIATELY

Emmanuel Macron does not like acting under duress. The proof ? In 2018, he remained 15 days without Minister of the Interior, following the resignation of Gérard Collomb. The situation is obviously not comparable, but there is a form of logic in waiting for the decision that the Constitutional Council will make, within a month, on the pension bill. To revise now would be to take the risk of being taken on the wrong foot in the event of censorship. Elisabeth Borne and her ministers gain a reprieve, even if the respite promises to be fragile.

Change method. NOT THAT EASY

Many majority parliamentarians are calling for a change of method. The deputy of Yvelines Bruno Milienne (MoDem) even pleaded for a real “government of national unity”. However, the parliamentary context makes such an operation uncertain. LR failed the government on pension reform. And the right formation seems more occupied with avoiding the implosion than with concluding a pact of government. Not to mention that the tune of the “new method” has already been sung by Emmanuel Macron in the first days of his five-year term. Eleven 49.3 later, the credit is at least started.

Redefine priorities. LIKELY

Emmanuel Macron consulted, this Tuesday, all the components of his majority. According to one of the participants, he asked his troops to make, “within two to three weeks”, “proposals” for a “change in the reform agenda”. Health, school or work are among the subjects likely to rise to the top of the pile. The President of the Republic could also play the institutional reform card. The immigration bill would, on the other hand, have some lead in the wing.

Temporize. RISK

To be content with reassuring one’s electorate and counting on a reversal of public opinion in the event of a conflagration in the street? The strategy might be tempting. But it appears risky, given the magnitude of the crisis and the unity of the trade union front. At a time when the Head of State is betting on the 1 p.m. newspaper, a classic channel if ever there was one, the speeches of influencers to millions of subscribers are multiplying on social networks against his reform. Anecdotal? Not that much, believes Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet, professor of political communication at Sciences Po Paris: “This indicates that we are changing dimension, it is a fairly tangible signal. »