Here is a study on which the Elysée and Matignon will look with interest for their new mandate. Published by PwC, it underlines how much the new executive will have to be as determined as it is inventive, throughout the five-year term, if it wishes to restore France to its rank of industrial power. Indeed, even by accumulating the 29.3 billion euros promised to the productive tool by the post-Covid Recovery plan and by France 2030, the share of manufacturing industry in GDP would only increase from 10, 1% in 2019 to 12% in 2030. Admittedly, this revival would actively contribute to reducing unemployment, with 431,000 job creations expected in the long term, in particular in the electronics sector. The figure will give some shivers in the aisles of the Global industry fair, which takes place from May 17 to May 20 in Paris Nord-Villepinte, since the sector is already struggling to recruit, with 70,000 unfilled jobs.
Yet even with this recovery, French industry would still lag behind in the European Union, where factories produce an average of 16% of GDP. “It’s hard to think that the public authorities want to stay below this average, even if the plans presented so far in France are careful not to put forward any quantified objective”, points out Olivier Lluansi, partner at PwC and author of Towards the industrial renaissancewith Anaïs Voy-Gillis.
Read alsoWHY the path to reindustrialization will be long and difficult
Disbursing more subsidies does not appear to be the right solution to consolidate reindustrialisation. “Aids are not the first criterion to trigger investment, swears the general delegate of an employers’ federation. They expect improvements in competitiveness, for example with lower production taxes”.
The ball is in the company’s court
If public funding therefore has its limit, the ball is in the court of companies to accentuate the rebound. PwC worked on a scenario in which industrialists would take four euros out of their pockets for every public euro received. The wealth generated by the manufacturing industry would then increase by 90 billion euros per year between now and 2030 and more than half a million jobs would emerge around the new production lines. A few examples show that such a commitment from the private sector can exist. The mega-factory of electric batteries of ACC, carried by Stellantis, Saft and Mercedes Benz, thus expects 5 billion euros of investment, a quarter of which would come from public funding.
Read alsoAuto industry could face battery shortages in coming years, says Tavares
This relative sobriety in the consumption of public funds is also due to ETIs firmly established in France, such as the family company Atlantic. The group specializing in heating systems is investing 4.3 million euros in the extension of its historic site in La Roche-sur-Yon, of which 800,000 euros come from France Relance. Objective: to increase its own production of precious electronic cards from 4 to 6 million units per year by 2024. The Vendée company has even decided to invest 50 million euros independently to double production of its more energy-efficient thermodynamic models.
However, this scenario described as “offensive” by PwC, with a massive commitment from companies, does not seem realistic on a large scale. “It would take a decisive mobilization of large groups, notes a good connoisseur of the industry. But the latter are too often missing.” When they appear, the giants of the CAC 40 make them pay dearly for their rallying. In its production decarbonization projects in France, for which it announced 1.7 billion euros of investment at the start of the year, ArcelorMittal requires France 2030 to cover half of its bills. With a sweet argument in the ears of politicians: the steelmaker launched a wave of hiring of 530 people at its Nordic sites last week.
Textile revival
Therefore, grassroots initiatives and SMEs committed to Made in France will be decisive in rebuilding the productive fabric. Including in unexpected sectors. “What is happening in textiles is completely crazy, points out Guillaume Gibault, founder of Le slip français (LSF) and pioneer in reviving the sector. Ten years ago, no one would have bet on such a development.” With Henitex from Roanne, LSF has committed 1.2 million euros, with 250,000 euros in public aid, for the ultra-automated manufacture of seamless clothing.
From Petit Bateau to Saint James, more than 780 textile projects have thus obtained support from the Recovery plan to robotize, extend lines and open new sites. “This astonishing dynamism is based on a form of pride on the part of entrepreneurs in relaunching Made in France and on the mobilization of “consumers” supporting the approach”, analyzes Olivier Lluansi. A dynamic on which the Atlantic group intends to surf “Many customers are showing growing interest in this made in France aspect of our production”, assures Franck Burdloff, who manages several factories of the Vendée group. This driver of domestic consumption will be essential to climb the path strewn with pitfalls of reindustrialization.
A cure for the trade deficit
Rough cut in the balance sheet of Macron’s first five-year term: according to figures collected in March by Customs, France has accumulated 100 billion euros in trade deficit in goods over the past twelve months. A record. This descent into hell is not, however, inevitable. PwC demonstrates that the plans undertaken by the government could make it possible to produce in France the equivalent of 27 billion euros of goods currently imported, by the end of the decade. For the manufacturing industry as a whole, the deficit would drop from 52 billion euros to 12 billion euros in ten years. An “offensive” scenario, where the groups would mobilize four euros in investment for each public euro collected, would even make it possible to post a surplus of 29 billion euros in 2030...
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