This weekend, Miguel Sano could fight Taylor Rogers, an event created by the baseball gods to get a Twins fan’s blood boiling.
As an angst inducer, the at-bat could only be made more effective if it were brought to life by David Ortiz, the Twins’ patron saint of regret.
Widely expected to finish third in American League Central in mid-March, the 2022 Twins take first place on July 29 as they begin a weekend streak in San Diego.
It could be cause for more celebrations in Minnesota, if the team hadn’t traded its top veteran reliever to the Padres and if Sano’s return wasn’t seen in Twindom the same way David Kahn’s return was. would be seen in Wolfdom.
Dealing with Rogers and bringing Sano back is sure to anger fans tired of watching the Twins’ bullpen implode and Sano miss pitches by 3 feet.
Watch the unemotional decisions, and they become more understandable, even though Rogers spent the first three months of the season kicking the Twins’ front office straight into analysis.
Let’s start with Sano. Yes, it knocks at a ridiculous rate. Yes, his fits last longer than Minnesota’s construction season.
Sano regularly fails the eye test. That’s why, in baseball more than in any other sport, you always have to look for the numbers.
Should Sano be on the current roster? Sure.
Sano’s career OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) would be the third-highest OPS among current Twins regulars, behind only Byron Buxton and Luis Arraez.
Sano August OPS career would be the highest on the current Twins roster.
For all his faults, Sano hits home runs and his home run drives tend to come with walks. He is more valuable than a crestfallen Gilberto Celestino. As measured by OPS, he’s more proven than Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff, and he’s been a more productive career hitter than Gary Sanchez, Gio Urshela, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco and Buxton.
Rogers’ trade is more vexing, as Rogers was exceptional for the Padres while the Twins’ bullpen blew leads early in the season and again in a streak against Cleveland that could prove crucial in the run for division.
So, did the Twins make a bad deal?
Well yes. Rogers has 28 saves. The twins are 20.
The Twins’ saves leader is Emilio Pagan, who hasn’t been a standout reliever in four seasons and has already managed to step out of the closer role. He has nine.
The Twins’ trade from Rogers for Pagan and starting pitcher Chris Paddack cannot be defended, as Pagan was horrible and Paddack, after showing great promise, underwent Tommy John’s second surgery of his career.
But was the trade stupid on the face of it?
The Twins thought Rogers was going to leave after this season and wanted to be able to trade him for good value. They thought trading Rogers for a veteran reliever and up-and-coming starter who’s under the team’s control through the 2024 season would mean trading around 60 good innings for maybe hundreds of quality innings.
Philosophically, this makes sense. If Paddack was healthy, he would likely be the Twins’ third starter right now, and his presence would mitigate the loss of Bailey Ober and Josh Winder.
Additionally, Rogers’ save total obscures his recent fights. He allowed four runs in his last 2⅔ innings. His ERA is a career-worst 4.35. His combined ERA in 2020-21 was 3.58. HIs ERA since June 28 (entering Thursday) is 8.74, with four missed saves.
The mistake the Twins made was not to trade Rogers but to trade him for an unpromising reliever (Pagan) and a starter (Paddack) who quickly got injured.
If the twins made a mistake in their medical assessment of Paddack, they will need to make changes to their process or their medical staff. If Paddack’s injury was just bad luck, then the Twins took a reasonable chance on the right kind of pitcher.
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