Six wild card hopefuls who could win the World Series, and five who certainly won’t

Six wild card teams have won the World Series, including the 2019 Nationals.

Thirteen wild cards reached the final round of the October playoffs. In 2014, the World Series was a clash between two wild card teams, the Royals and the Giants. The same as in 2002, when the Wild Angels defeated the Wild Giants.

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Coming into play on Tuesday, there are 11 teams within 3 1/2 games of a wild card spot. We’re going to look at each team and try to determine if they have a chance of qualifying.

“World Series Odds” are taken from Baseball-Reference.

No it won’t happen


World Series Odds: 0.3 percent

Thoughts: Look, it’s a huge credit to this team that they’re still in the playoff race. Truly exceptional teamwork. But winning in October seems… unlikely. The team’s base percentage is 0.301, which ranks it 29th out of 30 teams in the MLB. The OPS + team is 92. This stat is set so that 100 is the league average, meaning players contributing to the Seattle offense, as a whole, are 8% worse than the average hitter. from the MLB. It’s just not a formula for October success.


World Series Odds: 0.3 percent

Thoughts: No, just no.

It’s a team that, since mid-August when every game was super important, has been swept down the road by Arizona, lost three of four at home to the Rockies and two of three to the Marlins. There’s no reason, with the pitch issues and the paddock issues, to believe these Phillies have the consistency to ride through October.

A plausible October scenario in three acts, if they claim that second wildcard place:

1. Zach Wheeler dominates the wild card game.
2. The Phillies beat the NL No.1 seed in a best of five NLDS led by offensive hero Bryce Harper.
3. They are swept away by the NL team which emerges on the other side of the support, their WS hopes dashed in a cavalcade of errors, TOOTBLAN and blown advances at the end of the match.

Phillies fans would be crushed, but they wouldn’t be surprised.


World Series Odds: 0.1 percent

Thoughts: Let’s start here: no Jacob deGrom, bad luck at the World Series.

But let’s say a miracle happens and not only deGrom returns to the mound, but also Noah Syndergaard for the first time since the 2019 season. If these two guys are back and if they both throw near the top of theirs capabilities? Then, yes, add them to a rotation with Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker – and if Francisco Lindor’s three-homer game against the Yankees ignites an offense under an offense that has been dormant far too often this season – and the Mets would have a chance.

But, folks, this scenario is not happening.

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World Series Odds: 0.3 percent

Thoughts: The As, who are 7-13 since August 20, would need a massive enough flip-flop to get through the October milestone. The pitching staff are just a mess right now. The starters have a 5.40 ERA in games on September 11, covering 55 innings, and the relievers have a 7.88 ERA this month, covering 40 relief innings. Getting Chris Bassitt back – whatever role he is used for – would be a big help.


World Series Odds: 0.1 percent

Thoughts: It’s hard to see the Padres come out of their current slump – 8-20 since they hit a record 17 out of 0.500 season games on August 10 – and even make the playoffs, let alone make a run to October. The pitching just hasn’t been good and the offense – aside from Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and the now injured Jake Cronenworth – has been pretty darn poor.

Red Sox

World Series Odds: 1.9 percent

Thoughts: If they somehow get over this COVID debacle and everyone is healthy before October, it’s still a really good lineup and the rotation is better now, with Chris Sale and Tanner Houck taking over. Garrett Richards and Martin Perez. But their cap seems lower than that of the World Series champions.

Hey crazier things have happened


World Series Odds: 1.1 percent

Thoughts: Let’s put it this way: I’d be surprised to see the Reds have a deep run in October, but I wouldn’t be stunned. Luis Castillo threw like the ace he’s been for two difficult months; he’s got a 2.91 ERA in his last 19 starts, and Wade Miley, Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle complete a strong rotation. The roster has six hitters with at least 19 home runs (or will, when Jesse Winker returns). The main rooms are there. The question for the Reds is how the secondary pieces will be preformed.


World Series Odds: 0.2 percent

Thoughts: It is far from probable. Not in the same neighborhood as likely. But Cardinals fans won’t hesitate to point out the logic, and October has rarely been a partner in recent decades; three St. Louis teams hit the 100-game mark, but none of those three teams won the title, and the two St. Louis teams that won the World Series in the 2000s didn’t exactly have the title. an impressive total of victories before October. The 2006 squad only got 83 wins in a weak NL Central and the 2011 squad took the wild card with 90 wins, and only got that opportunity because Atlanta completely collapsed in the stretch (the Braves had a 9-1 / 2-game lead over St. Louis in the wild card race after a win on Sept. 1.

But, damn it, the collapse of the Padres (and the Reds, to some extent) sounds familiar, doesn’t it?

This particular club of the Cardinals would, no doubt, need a big help from Devil Magic until October 2021. But let’s say ageless wonder Adam Wainwright – he’s 40 years old with the second most innings pitched in MLB this year and a sub-3.00 ERA – got this club going through the wilds game. And let’s say starters Jack Flaherty and Dakota Hudson are coming back from their rehab sessions and while they were working on the pitch count, were providing some quality innings that the staff need. The core of the lineup, with Paul Goldschmidt (131 OPS +, 4.9 bWAR), Nolan Arenado (123 OPS +, 3.8 bWAR) and Tyler O’Neill (139 OPS +, 4.8 bWAR) is quite solid. Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and Harrison Bader had long streaks of good offense. The defense is really good – 73 Defensive Runs Saves lead the majors, ahead of second place for the Astros, at 67 – and that counts in October.

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World Series Odds: 0.9 percent

Thoughts: If they play like they did in August, they could win it all. But if they play like they did in April, June or September, no chance. And if you rank teams based on their odds of winning a World Series, you probably wouldn’t put a team with three months under 0.500 at the top of the list.

But Gerrit Cole is a good option for a winning or returning wild card game, and damn it, they looked amazing for most of August, so you can’t count them completely.

Real and legitimate shot on a title

Blue jays

World Series Odds: 5.8 percent

Thoughts: I’ve been saying for a while now that the Jays would be a dangerous team if they could somehow make it to the playoffs. Well, now they’re in a position to do it, and they’re absolutely dangerous.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Marcus Semien will finish in the top five in the MVP race, and five other Blue Jays also have at least 17 home runs. Robbie Ray could win the AL Cy Young award – a good guy to have in a wild card game, eh? – and the rest of the spin is just a tick behind it. If they come in and pass the game to toss I think they could be AL’s favorites.


World Series Odds: 17.0 percent

Thoughts: Yes, of course they can. Although they’re currently in the wildcard category, the Dodgers actually have the best World Series odds in baseball, which says a lot. They are an exceptional team, with a rotation led by Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw. The lineup includes Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Corey Seager and Chris Taylor. The Dodgers are the first team wild card, but they are 16 1/2 games ahead of the second team wild card. They can win absolutely anything.

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