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Russia has likely lost a third of its ground combat forces in Ukraine and the forces that remain are depleted and have been unable to make territorial progress in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said on Sunday.
Russia “has now probably suffered losses of a third of the ground combat force it committed in February,” the UK Ministry of Defense said in an update.
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“The Russian offensive in Donbass has lost momentum and fallen far behind,” the report continues. “Despite initial small-scale advances, Russia has failed to make substantial territorial gains over the past month while maintaining consistently high levels of attrition.”
The UK government also said those losses would “almost certainly” be compounded as tactical and support equipment continues to run out.
“These delays will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of critical enablers such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones,” the UK government said. “Russian bridging equipment was in short supply throughout the conflict, slowing and limiting offensive maneuvers.”
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The report adds: “Russian forces are increasingly constrained by… low morale and reduced combat effectiveness.
The British Ministry of Defense predicted that Russian forces would not return to the initial successes they saw unless these conditions changed significantly.
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“Under current conditions, Russia is unlikely to significantly accelerate its pace of progress over the next 30 days.”
Russia initially invaded Ukraine on February 24 and experts predicted that Ukrainian troops would be forced to surrender within weeks.
Conversely, Ukrainian forces repelled the aggressors and an outpouring of international support helped the small country stay in the fight.