As Generation Xers in their 40s and 50s become more conservative and Hispanic Americans are more aptly portrayed today as a swing vote than a reliable Democratic voting bloc, maintaining historic levels of turnout and ensuring a 60% youth vote threshold is no longer a “nice asset” but an indispensable element of democratic competitiveness at this time.
Young Americans are a notoriously hard-to-reach population for anyone; the challenge for government and politicians is all the greater as increasing numbers of people choose to shy away from the daily news for their mental well-being. Instead, they prefer to “check in” at specific times throughout the year. The State of the Union was one of those times when youth viewership grew; the debut season is another such opportunity.
Building on the substantial youth turnout in the last midterm elections is no small feat. When baby boomers, Gen Xers and older millennials were under 30, they often voted at about half the voting level of Gen Z in 2018. Understanding the drivers of Gen Z desperation and young millennials, and the circumstances that have shaped their worldview, Democrats will empower young voters and continue to reshape the electorate.
The Democrats’ best chance of success in the Senate begins with three states where young Americans already have above-average voter registration rates:
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Pennsylvania, where John Fetterman, the lieutenant governor who was once dubbed “America’s coolest mayor” in a previous role, is the favorite to win the party’s Senate nomination in Tuesday’s primary;
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North Carolina, where Cheri Beasley, who was the first black woman to serve as chief justice of the state Supreme Court, is leading her Senate primary, also being held on Tuesday;
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and Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson, an increasingly unpopular Republican and disinformation peddler, is seeking his third term.
In Arizona and Georgia, young African Americans and other voters of color played a vital role in 2020 and 2021 and can do so again — but the challenge for Democrats is tougher. The Phoenix and Atlanta areas are suffering from the highest inflation rates in the nation, putting even more pressure on incumbent Democratic senators vying for re-election, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Raphael Warnock of Georgia, to prioritize young voters and talk about their values. .
Capturing three home seats in California, including one once held by Devin Nunes, as well as winning or holding youth-friendly seats in Washington state, Iowa, Maine and Colorado, are among the best shots for Democrats are mobilizing young voters in hopes of hanging in the House in November.
Gen Z and millennials hold the fate of Congress in their hands. Their message to all of us is clear: the systems we have built cannot meet the challenges of our time and guarantee even the basic rights of many of its inhabitants. Young voters are stressed. They are angry. In 2018 and 2020 they elected the Democrats, but in 2022 they need to see more before they re-engage with the same zeal.
The path is narrow, but the race is far from over.
John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe) is the director of polls at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and has overseen its youth poll since 2000, and the author of “Fight: How Gen Z is Channeling Their Fear and Passion to Save America “. He served as a pollster for Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign.
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