Republican flamethrowers and culture warriors like Donald Trump and Representatives Matt Gaetz and Marjorie Taylor Greene typically attract inordinate media attention.
Americans can conclude that there is a striking, and perhaps unfortunate, relationship between extremism and political success.
But Republicans aren’t hoping for a midterm red wave just because standards or scandals sell. The truth is much more mundane – but also important for parties to internalize and better for politics in general: In states across the country, Republican governors are delivering real results for people they are physically closer to than federal officials. .
Now, it’s true that the party that controls the presidency is almost always defeated in midterm elections, and inflation would be a huge drag on any party in power. And it’s also true that among those governors are culture warriors like Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and Governor Greg Abbott of Texas.
But people too often overlook the idea that real results, especially those related to portfolio issues, can often be as important as rhetoric. Seen in this light, many Republicans — some with high public profiles and others who fly under the radar — excel.
Will the Democrats face midterm annihilation?
Start with the simplest metric: popularity. Nationwide, 13 of the 15 most popular governors are Republicans. This list does not only include red states. In fact, Blue State Republican governors like Phil Scott of Vermont, Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, and Larry Hogan of Maryland are among the most popular.
There are many reasons why GOP governors seem to be successful. It is true that governors cannot take credit for everything. Sometimes they are just lucky. But they are making political choices, and especially those made by governors since the onset of Covid have made a difference.
For example, take a look at the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on unemployment. Of the 10 states with the lowest rates in June, eight were led by Republican governors. Several governors who don’t make frequent national news appearances stand out, such as Nebraska’s Pete Ricketts, New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu, Utah’s Spencer Cox and Vermont’s Phil Scott. Their states have unemployment rates below 2.5% and of the 20 states with the lowest unemployment rates, only four are led by Democrats.
States with Republican governors have also excelled in economic recovery since the pandemic began. The stars of this measure include Mr. Abbott and Doug Ducey of Arizona.
These results reflect many things – some states have grown and others have shrunk, for example – but are at least partly the result of policy choices made by their elected leaders since the start of the pandemic. For example, governors like Kristi Noem in South Dakota have often rejected economic lockdowns and shutdowns.
Republican governors were also far more likely to get kids back to school in person, despite intense criticism.
The Covid policy does not explain everything. Fiscal governance also made a difference. The Cato Institute’s Fiscal Report Card on U.S. Governors for 2020 (the most recent edition available), which rates them on tax and spending records, gives many Republicans high marks. Almost all of the top-ranked states in this report have Republican governors, like Iowa’s Kim Reynolds or Mr. Ricketts. (Some Democratic governors have also done well, including Steve Sisolak of Nevada and Roy Cooper of North Carolina.) Some have made their mark with attractive tax cuts for employers; others with spending controls; others with a mixture.
Most states require a balanced budget, so taxation and spending policies are important for fiscal stability. Low taxes tend to attract and retain employers and employees. Tight budgets help ensure that taxes can be kept low, without sacrificing bond ratings, which can be important if debt-financed spending is needed in a crisis or to try to induce companies to hire more .
Arkansas’ Asa Hutchinson cut personal taxes, reduced the number of tax brackets, and lowered the corporate tax rate. Mr Sununu has restricted spending, vetoed a payroll tax proposal and cut taxes on businesses. Georgia’s Brian Kemp, on the other hand, actually suspended some tax cuts that were planned — and focused almost exclusively on spending restraint, issuing a directive for state agencies to generate budget cuts and keeping general fund growth in 2020 to a miniscule 1%.
Even in blue Vermont, Mr Scott has limited general fund spending – despite being an odd duck among governors in that he is not constrained by a balanced budget amendment – to increase. an annual average of only 2.4% between 2017 and 2020, and it also reduced taxes. He signed a bill to ensure that the federal tax reform instituted under Mr. Trump and the limitation of state and municipal tax deductions would not result in hammer blows for Vermonters. He also cut personal income tax rates, reduced the number of tax brackets and resisted new payroll taxes in favor of voluntary paid vacation schemes for private sector employers.
Republicans who have a big impact on the daily lives of many Americans – unlike, say, Rep. Kevin McCarthy or certainly Mr. Trump, and in terms of the quality of state economies, the local labor market and education – offer . In our federalist system, much of the power still belongs to the states and not to the federal government and very much determines the lives of citizens.
This is one of the main reasons Republicans are doing well heading into the midterms. That should be a wake-up call for Joe Biden and the Democrats — and for some of the culture warriors. The cable news fight over the day’s outrage can put politicians in the spotlight. But sound economic policy and a focus on work, not theater, provides basic everyday results that Americans want, need, and will reward.
Liz Maier (@LizMair), a strategist for the campaigns of Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry, is the founder and chairman of Mair Strategies.
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