In many ways, the district Wexton represents is emblematic of modern political trends in Virginia, a diverse state that has quickly gone blue but remains competitive. Wexton first won the seat in 2018, putting it under Democratic control for the first time since 1980. His victory was part of the blue wave that year across the country that began tilting suburban areas toward the Democratic Party at the start of Donald Trump’s mandate. presidency. In doing so, she ousted Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock, an ally of former President George W. Bush who has since become a vocal critic of Trump.
“Congresswoman Wexton made this election and winning this seat look easy,” Del said. Suhas Subramanyam, running for state Senate in a district overlapping part of Wexton’s congressional seat. He added that the upcoming elections in November will also be a good indicator for the 2024 presidential race.
Virginia’s state legislative elections this fall will likely be a barometer for many candidates to gauge the district’s competitiveness.
“We have an election in 49 days,” Avram Fechter, chairman of the Loudoun County Democratic Committee, said Monday. “We will know a lot more about this district in 49 days than we do today because we have every office in Loudoun County on the ballot, from the board of supervisors to the school board to the sheriff and everything as well than the rest of the district. »
Several candidates on the November ballot are considering running, including Subramanyam. State Attorney Dan Helmer is also considering a run for the seat, according to a person familiar with his thinking. County supervisors are also rumored to be eyeing the seat. State Attorney David Reid is also considering running, according to a person familiar with his thinking.
But the strong interest shown by a number of Democrats should not be taken as Democrats taking it for granted.
There is no denying that whoever ultimately takes the seat will follow a political heavyweight in the state. Wexton won the largely suburban district with 53% of the vote in 2022. She was also considered a leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate in 2025, alongside fellow Democratic Reps. Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer McClellan.
But even though Biden easily won the district, just miles from Washington DC, it has taken on new importance as the Republican Party shifts its message to try to win back those suburban voters who began flocking under Trump.
Virginia’s 10th District covers all of Rappahannock County, Fauquier County and the now-famous Loudoun County, which has become a frontline in the school culture wars. Gov. Glenn Youngkin won his 2021 election, at least in part, by reaching out to voters in this diverse suburban community and presenting himself as a different kind of Republican in the post-Trump GOP.
A GOP campaign strategist told POLITICO that Hung Cao, who is currently a Republican candidate for Senate but ran against Wexton last cycle, could change races now that the seat is open. Cao did not respond to a request for comment.
John Smith of the Loudoun County Republican Committee said Republicans have not yet indicated they are entering the race, highlighting everyone’s concern about the upcoming election.
“The Republican Party here in Northern Virginia is not the same as it was four years ago. We are different,” Smith said in an interview. “We are much more inclusive. We reach out and work hard to reach different communities.