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NZDUSD is trading near the lows ahead of the RBNZ rate decision. What are the key levels?


The RBNZ meets and announces its decision of interest on the new trading day (at 10 p.m. ET).

After 12 consecutive hikes, the central bank kept rates unchanged at their last meeting at 5.5%. They are expected to keep the rate unchanged again.

Going forward, the market only has a 10% chance of a rise in October and a 30% chance of a rise in November as inflation remains elevated relative to the 1-3% target (currently at 6%).

The current price is trading near the lows of the year after dipping below the former low from late May at 0.5985. This level will be a barometer for “bullish above” and “bearish below” after the decision.

On the upside, an upward move would lead traders to target the 50% midpoint of the range since the 2022 low. This level sits at 0.60242. It is also near the bottom of a swing zone on the 4-hour chart (the swing zone extends to 0.6032). Move into this area and the door opens for further upside momentum.

On the downside, the 61.8% retracement of the range from the 2022 low moves to 0.5903 (close to 0.5900). Move below this level and the door opens for further selling momentum.

The NZDUSD is trading between the 50% and 61.8% retracement.



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