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nytimes – OECD sharply raises global growth forecast, citing vaccines

The global economy is expected to recover from the coronavirus pandemic faster than expected this year, as vaccinations in advanced economies and a huge fiscal stimulus package in the United States trigger pent-up business activity and job creation, said the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Monday.

But the pace of the recovery still depends on vaccination programs and the ability of governments to fend off new variants of the virus, raising new risks even as economic activity begins to pick up in most parts of the world, said the organization in its latest economic outlook.

The organization sharply raised its global growth forecast to 5.8% in 2021, from 4.2% in December. He said the pace of the expansion would cool to 4.5% in 2022 as government support programs rolled out.

A government-led recovery in the United States, where President Biden is betting on a $ 2 trillion infrastructure package to end the effects of the pandemic faster, has helped improve the global outlook, said the group. China continues to experience the strongest rebound in the world, improving the global outlook as well.

In Europe, which dragged the United States into a recovery, an acceleration in immunization programs allowed governments to begin lifting restrictions on activities, accelerating what had been a slow economic reopening.

The reverse is true for many emerging market economies which are suffering from slow vaccine distribution, new Covid-19 epidemics and economically limiting containment measures, hampering prospects for a rapid recovery.

India, which has suffered a deadly resurgence of the virus, is therefore expected to face economic hardship and a slower return to pre-pandemic growth levels until the impact of the virus wears off, said the ‘organization.

He estimated that the US economy would grow 6.9% in 2021; in China, 8.5%; in the euro zone, 4.3%; in Britain, 7.2 percent; in Argentina, 6.1 percent; and in India, 9.9 percent.

“Our latest projections give hope that in many countries, those hard hit by the pandemic will soon be able to return to work and start living a normal life again,” Laurence Boone, the organization’s chief economist, said in a statement. briefing.

“But we are at a critical stage in the recovery. The production and distribution of vaccines must accelerate globally and be supported by effective public health strategies, ”she said.

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