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Nanos Tracking: With Gains Across The Country, PPC Could Be A ‘Potential Spoiler’ In Elections


TORONTO – Since the start of the federal election, the People’s Party of Canada has seen its support grow steadily across the country, leading pollster Nik Nanos to suggest it could become a spoiler for other parties.

According to a report by Nanos Research for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, which was released on Wednesday, PPC has gained ground across the country with dramatic surges in British Columbia and Ontario.

“The People’s Party has gained support since the start of the campaign,” Nanos said on Wednesday’s edition of CTV’s Trend Line podcast. “They’re not that hard to win a whole bunch of ridings, but they could be a potential spoiler.”

There is one riding in particular, however, where Nanos has said the party might have a chance of winning: the own riding of PPC leader Maxime Bernier of Beauce, Que. The former Conservative had held the rural riding since 2006 before losing his seat in the 2019 federal election while campaigning under the PPC banner.

“The one seat they probably have the most chances of winning would be Maxime Bernier in Beauce,” said Nanos. “Beyond that, their support is somewhat widespread across the country, but Beauce will be the riding to watch to see if Maxime Bernier will make a comeback.”

To achieve this, Bernier and his party’s 311 candidates campaigned to draw disillusioned Conservative supporters and others to the PPC for a “purple wave” on September 20.

The momentum appears to be in favor of the party, according to Nanos poll data, which showed their national support was less than 2% when the writ was issued on August 15. Fast forward to the latest nightly tracking data, released on Wednesday, and the PPC now enjoys 6.8% support nationwide.

The PPC’s growing share of support was enough to grab the attention of reporters who asked Conservative leader Erin O’Toole if he feared Bernier’s party would split the vote among right-wing voters in a recent campaign. election in the Greater Toronto Area. The Conservative leader dodged the question.

According to Nanos and other political experts, the growing popularity of Bernier and the PPC can be largely attributed to their vocal stance against government-imposed COVID-19 vaccine warrants and passports.

Political strategist Shakir Chambers, who helped the Progressive Conservatives of Doug Ford win the 2018 provincial election in Ontario, said the PPC has drawn on anger over it from conservatives and non-conservatives alike.

“They occupy such a unique space in this election,” Chambers recently told The Canadian Press.

“They say we should have a conversation about these things, no other party says you can even discuss whether or not it should be mandatory.”

While the PPC appears to be attracting support across the country, there are some areas where the gains have been particularly noticeable.

Nanos Research shattered regional divisions in party support across the country in its special report by comparing a five-day period at the start of the campaign (August 18-22) to a five-day period after the official debates of the chefs (September 10-14).

Here are the regional results.

BRITISH COLUMBIA

According to Nanos, British Columbia is shaping up to be a close three-way race between the Conservatives, the NDP and the Liberals, with the PPC recording the largest increase in party support since the campaign began.

“I’m probably going to sound like I’m repeating myself when we talk about the People’s Party and a lot of other parts of the country, because we see this trend in a lot of other places as well,” Nanos said.

The Green Party, on the other hand, did not follow the same trajectory this election. Nanos said the party enjoyed up to 15 percent support in British Columbia in the previous election, but this time around it has only 8 percent.

“[It’s] probably a little disappointing compared to some of the historic increases they have seen in this province, ”he said.

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Preservatives 35 to 30%;

  • NPD 30 percent to 26 percent;

  • Liberals 27 percent to 28 percent;

  • Green Party 7 to 8%; and

  • People’s Party of Canada 1% to 8%

PRAIRIES

The Prairies remain a stronghold for the Conservatives, according to Nanos, who said the party retained the same support it had at the start of the campaign when you factor in the poll’s margin of error.

“The grasslands remain a lock for the blue team,” Nanos said. “I don’t think there will be a big difference in the Prairie provinces because the Conservatives still have a huge lead when it comes to ballot support.”

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Conservatives 51% to 49%;

  • Liberals 23% to 17%;

  • NPD 16% to 23%;

  • People’s Party of Canada 5 to 8%; and

  • Green Party 4% to 2%

ONTARIO

Looking at the entire province of Ontario, Nanos said the Liberals have maintained their lead over the Tories and have even managed to widen a bigger gap since the start of the campaign. He also noted that the Greater Toronto Area remains a liberal stronghold, according to the data.

“It’s no big surprise, in Fortress GTA the Liberals still have a pretty good lead. They will probably do very well in the GTA, ”he said.

Notably, the PPC has made headway in the province, Nanos said, with support increasing from 1% to 7% since the election began.

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Liberals 42% to 40%;

  • Preservatives 35 to 30%;

  • NPD 18 percent to 20 percent;

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 7 percent; and

  • Green Party 3% to 3%

RGT

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Liberals 44% to 47%;

  • Preservatives 34 to 27%;

  • NPD 18 percent to 18 percent;

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 6 percent; and

  • Green Party 3% to 1%

QUEBEC

While support for the Liberals seemed strong enough at the start of the campaign, Nanos pointed out that the Bloc Québécois has narrowed this gap and that the race seems tighter now than it was before.

“That margin is now just four percentage points from a 10 point advantage the Liberals had at the start of the campaign,” he said.

Otherwise, Nanos said there weren’t many other surprises in the province, with the island of Montreal remaining a liberal stronghold. He also noted that there has not been a dramatic increase in support for CPP in Quebec as has been the case in other provinces.

“So it’s a bit of a factor, but not as dramatic as in other parts of the country,” he said.

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Liberals 35% to 32%;

  • Bloc Québécois 25 per cent to 28 per cent;

  • NPD 19% to 15%;

  • Preservatives 16% to 18%

  • Green Party 4 percent to 3 percent; and

  • People’s Party of Canada 1 percent to 4 percent

ATLANTIC CANADA

Like Quebec, there were also few surprises in the Atlantic provinces where the Liberals maintained their solid lead.

“For now at least the Liberals still have what would be considered a fairly comfortable nine point lead, not as comfortable as the Prairie lead the Conservatives have, but still fairly decent in the Atlantic provinces.” , did he declare.

The PPC has also seen a slight increase in support in this region as the Green Party has seen its popularity drop, Nanos added.

Party support from August 18 to 22 and September 10 to 14:

  • Liberals 41 percent to 41 percent;

  • Preservatives 29% to 32%;

  • NPD 22% to 20%;

  • Green Party 7% to 3%; and

  • People’s Party of Canada 2% to 5%

METHODOLOGY

A national dual-base (land + cell) random telephone survey is conducted each evening by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. This report is composed of a comparison of two five-day periods of the electoral campaign, the first wave being between August 18 and 22 and the second between September 10 and 14, for voters in the province of La British Columbia.

The margin of error for a survey of 221 and 300 respondents is ± 6.7 percentage points and ± 5.7 percentage points, respectively, 19 times out of 20.

With files from The Canadian Press

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