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Nanos poll: Recent drop in support for Singh could indicate NDP supporters are turning to liberals

TORONTO – With just a week to go to the end of the election campaign, a recent drop in support for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh could indicate that some of his party’s supporters are turning to the Liberals, according to pollster Nik Nanos.

According to Nanos Research overnight tracking data for CTV News and The Globe and Mail, support for Singh as the preferred prime minister has steadily waned over the past four days. The latest poll data, released on Monday, puts him at 16.3% support – a sharp drop from the 21.2% support he was enjoying on Thursday.

“The only definitive trend from the past four days is Jagmeet Singh and the big question is, ‘Is this a leading indicator that some New Democrats might be turning to the Liberals?’ Nanos asked on Monday’s edition of CTV’s Trend Line podcast.

While Nanos said it was too early to say how Singh’s waning support might affect the bottom line, he said a leader’s poll numbers usually provide an early indication of the party’s overall support.

“For the people who support the New Democrats, it’s not like one day they support the New Democrats and another day they support another party,” Nanos said. “So Singh should be a little worried about his numbers going down, as that may suggest some of that support could possibly wane later this week.”

As to why Singh’s popularity appears to be declining, Nanos said support for the leader has been consistent throughout the campaign and the decline has only occurred in the past four days, coinciding with the date the English-speaking leaders’ debate aired on September 9.

In addition to the debate, Nanos said the NDP recently revealed how it will pay its election promises with the release of its encrypted platform on Saturday. According to the party’s calculations, the NDP platform would cost $ 214 billion over five years, with $ 166 billion in projected revenue from the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

“In the context of the other two parties, the Liberals and the Conservatives, they always spend more money, and now the New Democrats with their platform want to spend more than the Liberals and Conservatives,” Nanos said.

“We’ll see in a few nights if people maybe aren’t on the lookout for such a deficit and such increased spending.”

In terms of support for other party leaders, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau continues to maintain his slight lead over the Prime Minister’s preferred front with 33 percent support, followed by Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole with 28 percent. The leader of the People’s Party of Canada, Maxime Bernier, leads the other parties with 6% support, followed by Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet at 3.5% and Green Party leader Annamie Paul at 2, 6%.

Interestingly, Nanos noted that the percentage of Canadians undecided about their preferred choice of prime minister has dropped to 10.6%.

“It’s the lowest we’ve seen in the campaign and it’s pretty low,” he said.


With advance polls already underway and the clock ticking, Nanos said parties will have their work cut out for them in this campaign’s final “white week”.

According to overnight tracking data released on Monday, here’s how Nanos’ daily ballot tracking numbers break down:

  • Liberals 33.2 percent;

  • Preservatives 30.2%;

  • NPD 18.6%;

  • Bloc Québécois 6.8%;

  • People’s Party of Canada 6.6 percent; and

  • Green Party 3.8 percent

“It’s still a statistical equality. I know this shows the Liberals a numerical lead, but it’s still very close between the Liberals and the Conservatives, ”Nanos said. “[It’s] a throw right now.


Looking ahead, Nanos said he expects Trudeau to spend the final week of the campaign answering questions about his former Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould and the SNC-Lavalin affair after he published excerpts from his upcoming memoirs over the weekend.

“I think that’s going to be the problem that likely looms over Trudeau at every event he hosts,” Nanos predicted.

Additionally, Nanos said he believes Trudeau will attempt to demonize the Tories over the home stretch in an effort to stoke fear among voters.

“The Liberals, they keep the heavy cards of fear until the very end,” he said.

For the Tories, on the other hand, Nanos said O’Toole’s strategy will likely focus on showcasing a prime ministerial appearance while avoiding mistakes and positioning himself as risk-free change.

“Because liberal strategy will attempt to portray Erin O’Toole as risky change,” Nanos said.

The Singh and the NDP will have a fine line to go this week, according to Nanos, who said the party will likely try to distinguish itself from other parties with its big-spending platform, but try to do so in a way that do not alienate voters and risk leading them to the Liberals.

“I think in the longer term it’s a smart strategy because it suggests that if the Liberals win, or the Conservatives win, for that matter, its job will be to get more for Canadians,” Nanos said. “The problem is short-term, will it be crushed in strategic voting as happened in the last two elections?”

Blanchet, however, will likely have a simpler strategy for the week ahead, according to Nanos, one focused on gaining Liberal support for the BQ in Quebec.

“Our polls suggest that the Island of Montreal remains a stronghold for the Liberals overall, but once you leave the Island of Montreal, it’s actually very competitive between the Bloc and the Liberals,” a- he declared.

For Paul and the Green Party, Nanos said the best scenario for them would be to keep their two seats in British Columbia and for Paul to win his constituency in Toronto and then begin the process of rebuilding and healing the party after all the divisions. that they lived.

Finally, Nanos said Bernier’s support is surprisingly high at 6 percent given he was left out of the two official leaders’ debates last week.

“The big question is will this be a spoiler for the Conservatives? Nanos said. “Bernier is still a factor. Can he deliver on these voting numbers? We will see how well organized and motivated these supporters of the People’s Party of Canada are.


A national random telephone survey (sample of land and cell lines using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is being conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening, a new group of 400 eligible voters is questioned. Daily follow-up figures are based on a three-day rolling sample including 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new maintenance day is added and the oldest day is deleted. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The sample of respondents is stratified geographically and by sex. Data may be age-weighted based on data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Reported percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


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