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Nanos poll: Liberals and conservatives in a two-way race for campaign home stretch

TORONTO – Liberals and Conservatives are in a two-way race for the home stretch of the election campaign, new poll data from Nanos Research shows.

In the latest overnight tracking data, made for CTV News and The Globe and Mail and released on Wednesday, the Liberals have been trending down since Friday and are now at 30.5 percent support. Taking into account the poll’s margin of error, that puts the party on a statistical par with the Conservatives with 31.2% support.

The Conservatives have seen their support increase slightly in recent days, with their poll numbers gradually increasing since Sunday.

The favorites are followed by the NDP at 21.4 percent, which is a bump from the night before, when it posted 18.9 percent support.

In the last group, the People’s Party of Canada leads with 6.8%, followed by the Bloc Québécois with 6.2% and the Green Party with 3.7%.

When it comes to who Canadians prefer for their next prime minister, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole remain tied.

According to poll data, Trudeau received 29.4 percent support while O’Toole got 29.1 percent. Given the margin of error, this puts the two party leaders on a statistical equality.

NDP Jagmeet Singh came third on the preferred prime ministers front with 20.5%, followed by People’s Party of Canada leader Maxime Bernier, Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet and Green Party leader Annamie Paul.

Of Canadians surveyed, 9.2 percent said they did not know who they would prefer as prime minister.

Nanos poll: Liberals and conservatives in a two-way race for campaign home stretch


A national random telephone survey (terrestrial and cellular sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is being conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening, a new group of 400 eligible voters is questioned. Daily tracking numbers are based on a three-day rolling sample of 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new maintenance day is added and the oldest day is deleted. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The sample of respondents is stratified geographically and by sex. Data may be age-weighted based on data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Reported percentages may not add to 100 due to rounding.


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