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Morocco maintains the highest score in North Africa


In its latest Country and Sector Risk Barometer, Coface maintained a B rating for Morocco, on a dark global map of C, D and E ratings (i.e. high, very high and extreme risk) due to an international environment that remains as risky as it is uncertain. Even if its rating reflects a “fairly high” risk, the Kingdom remains in the top 7 of the best country risk assessments on the continent. He is, moreover, the first of the class in North Africa.

Morocco confirms again its resilienceaccording to the latest country and sector risk barometer published by Coface. The credit insurer has thus maintained the “B” rating for the country, on a dark world map in C, D and E ratings (i.e. high, very high and extreme risk) due to an international environment which remains as risky that uncertain. Even if its rating reflects a “fairly high” risk, the Kingdom remains in the top 7 of the best country risk assessments on the continentbehind Botswana (rated A4, or suitable risk), and alongside Rwanda, Kenya, Mauritius, Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire (also rated B).

Coface’s assessments (162 countries) are globally on a scale of 8 levels of non-payment risk for companies ranging from A1 (very low risk) to E (extreme risk), based on the apprehension of the environment business and microeconomic data, including payment data. Thus, in North Africa, Morocco remains the most resilient country in the region with a better score than Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt (high risk) or even Libya (extreme risk).

Fear of a resurgence of inflation in the world in the second half

According to Coface, the outlook for the global economy remains gloomy for 2023. The main source of concern is the inflation path. If a movement of disinflation seems to be underway, the crucial question of its landing remains (and at what level?). Indeed, the disinflation expected in the first part of the year could end before reaching the levels targeted by the monetary authorities: the 2% target set by the central banks. In addition, a resurgence of inflation in the second half cannot be ruled out. And for good reason, if the reopening of thechinese economy proves positive for global growth, it also carries an upside risk for inflation. In addition, the persistent threat of Covid-19 will remain to be monitored. New waves of infections and/or future containment measures could once again prove problematic for global supply chains, fueling inflationary pressures on goods internationally.

The dilemma for central banks intensifies

In this context, the dilemma for central banks intensifies, as the tightening of monetary policies which would help control inflation could also aggravate the deceleration of the economy. According to Coface experts, the uncertainty and risks weighing on the inflation outlook make the direction of monetary policy much more unpredictable in the second half. The markets, anticipating a sensitive economic downturn, began betting on rate cuts before the end of the year. Nevertheless, if inflation were to stabilize above their targets, rate cuts would not be on the agenda. On the contrary, in the event of a resumption of inflation in the second half of the year, a new tightening of the screw cannot be ruled out. Such a scenario would have negative and long-lasting repercussions on activity and employment. “In the fight against inflation, the last rounds could therefore prove to be the most difficult,” warns the credit insurer. The latter kept its global growth forecast for 2023 unchanged, at 1.9%, a marked slowdown compared to 2022. Beyond the advanced economies, inflation and the tightening of monetary conditions should also translate into a slowdown. activity, although less marked, in emerging and developing countries.

The good news for the Morocco is that the year 2023 is off to a good start for its main economic partner, theEurope, on the macroeconomic front. Europe could, indeed, escape a recession which seemed to him however promised. “The mild temperatures and the substantial gas reserves have made it possible to remove the specter of rationing for Europe this winter and the European economies should thus avoid a sharp contraction in activity”, explains Coface. Growth in 2023 is expected at 1% in Spain0.3% in France and 0.2% in Germanycompared to 0.8% in UNITED STATES and 4% in Chinatwo equally strategic partners for the Kingdom.

Other good news, this time sectoral, is the improvement in the outlook for automotive industrythanks to the gradual reduction of tensions in the supply chains.



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