Alexandre Chauveau, edited by Loane Nader // photo credit: Bertrand GUAY / AFP
Four years before the presidential election, a latest Ifop poll published in “Le Figaro” announces Marine Le Pen as the favorite in the voting intentions of the French. If the election took place tomorrow, for example, the National Rally candidate would be in the lead in the first round, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be in free fall.
This is the first Ifop poll since the Hamas attack in Israel on October 7. He announces Marine Le Pen as the favorite of the French voting intentions while Jean-Luc Mélenchon would be far behind her. Whatever her opponents, the National Rally candidate would obtain between 31 and 33% of the votes or seven points more than in 2022. This is therefore an illustration of the weight gained by her party in the National Assembly but also the symbol of the expansion of its electoral base, which nevertheless still remains limited among retirees.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon favorite of the left
This Ifop survey published in Le Figaro also highlights another shift, that of Jean-Luc Mélenchon four years from the deadline. The third man in the last presidential election would remain at the gates of the second round, but with 14% of voting intentions, or eight points less than in 2022. The former president of La France insoumise, however, remains one step ahead of his competitors on the left, where no one really seems to emerge. For example, François Ruffin, tested for the first time, does not exceed 7%.
In the center, the battle for the succession of Emmanuel Macron is currently turning to the advantage of Edouard Philippe who would come second, with 25% of the voting intentions. A remarkable score which does better than the current heavyweights of the government. Gabriel Attal is tested at 19%, Bruno Le Maire at 18% and Gérald Darmanin at 16%.
Finally, on the right, Eric Zemmour remains stable and would retain his 6 to 7% of voters while Laurent Wauquiez is struggling to take off and is stagnating at 6% of voting intentions.