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‘Katy, bar the door’: Why Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan carries a risk of military escalation
‘Katy, bar the door’: Why Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan carries a risk of military escalation
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan, an island considered by Beijing to be an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as… 29.07.2022, Sputnik International
2022-07-29T17:30+0000
2022-07-29T17:30+0000
2022-07-29T18:34+0000
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“Do you remember what happened in 1983? Two days after the explosion of 241 Marines in Lebanon, the United States invaded tiny Grenada. Overnight, the previous headlines disappeared. I think we see the same today NATO loses a lot in Ukraine and it’s going to be a long winter for the West Beating its imperial coffer with Taiwan now is what the MSM is reporting, let alone Ukraine “Suggests Jeff J. Brown, author of “The China Trilogy”, editor of China Rising Radio Sinoland, and curator of the Bioweapon Truth Commission. If Pelosi visits Taiwan, it would be the first time that an American politician high-ranking visit to the island in 25 years.The last time was Newt Gingrich, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the displeasure of Chinese leaders. ‘” Gingrich told reporters at the time, as quoted by The New York Times. However, Clinton administration officials made it clear that Gingrich “speaks for himself.” According to CNN, Pelosi’s initiative has raised concerns in both the Biden administration and the Pentagon, with US national security officials “working quietly to convince Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of the risks of her potential trip to Taiwan”. While in 1997 Beijing and Washington managed to resolve the dilemma, this time the PRC’s leaders may opt for a tougher response, CNN and The Guardian have warned. against Beijing, which has yet to be stopped by Joe Biden. In a candid phone conversation, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned his American counterpart against “playing with fire” over Taiwan and explained that any involvement would eventually backfire on the United States. Senior Colonel Tan Kefei, spokesman for the Chinese Defense Ministry, said on July 26: “If the United States insists on going its own way, the Chinese military will never sit idly by, and it will certainly take vigorous measures to thwart any interference by outside force.” Tan pointed out that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would “seriously violate the one-China principle” and “seriously undermine China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.” “. Meanwhile, Brown surmises China’s hypothetical response “could include a declared no-fly zone.” However, there is a “much more elegant option”, according to the author:[China could] take control of the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, located just two kilometers from Xiamen, off the coast of the Chinese province of Fujian. It would only take a few hours. I don’t think Beijing will hit US targets unless it’s attacked first. conflict with the United States is no coincidence. For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetric non-military response. Yet the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already embroiled in a confrontation with Russia, raising “I don’t think that neither China nor the United States wants an escalation,” says Sisci. “The discussion between Biden and Xi Jinping was aimed at avoiding an escalation”. “Brown also thinks Beijing’s warnings have been heeded by Washington.
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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to visit Taiwan, an island considered by Beijing to be an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), as part of a wider trip to Asia. Although Pelosi has yet to confirm the visit, tensions have escalated sharply between the United States and the PRC.
If Pelosi visits Taiwan, it would be the first time a high-ranking US politician has visited the place in 25 years. The last time was Newt Gingrich, then Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, who arrived on the island in 1997, ignoring the displeasure of Chinese leaders.
Likewise, it appears that Pelosi’s apparent visit to Taiwan is not in line with the Biden administration’s China policy, argues Francesco Sisci, a China expert, author and columnist based in Beijing.
“American politics is not defined as an omniscient Leviathan,” said the Chinese expert. “Congress, the Senate, the executive all move on different agendas that often don’t coincide and conflict with each other. The problem is that there’s a growing anti-Beijing sentiment in America and that has sometimes flashes that are not ‘I believe that the visit is an expression of a feeling rather than a clear plan.
“A Chinese general has publicly stated that Pelosi’s visit could prompt a military response from Beijing,” Brown said. “The Chinese Foreign Ministry repeated it. Now, with Xi’s ‘You get burned playing with fire’ metaphor, I think there would be a military response.”
Tan stressed that Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan would “seriously violate the one-China principle” and “seriously harm China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and seriously damage the political foundation of China-US relations.” .
Meanwhile, Brown speculates that China’s hypothetical response “could include a declared no-fly zone.” However, there is a “much more elegant option”, according to the author:
“[China could] take control of the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, located just two kilometers from Xiamen, off the coast of the Chinese province of Fujian. It would only take a few hours. I don’t think Beijing will hit US targets unless they are hit first.”
“Does Biden know that China and nuclear-armed North Korea have had a mutual defense treaty since 1961?” Brown asks rhetorically. “NATO is bled dry in Ukraine and it is imperial folly, hubris or geopolitical strategy to think it can fight the biggest and most powerful army in East Asia. ‘East, which is only 200 km from Taiwan.”
For his part, Sisci believes that the PRC could opt for an asymmetric non-military response. Yet the unfolding crisis is complicated by the fact that Washington is already embroiled in a confrontation with Russia, raising questions about whether the United States is capable of taking on Moscow and Beijing at the same time.
“I don’t think China or the United States want an escalation,” Sisci said. “The discussion between Biden and Xi Jinping was aimed at avoiding an escalation.”
Brown also believes Beijing’s warnings were heeded by Washington.
“Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan has been mooted by Washington for months now,” he said. “A supposed Covid-19 infection scuttled the first trial balloon. After Biden’s phone call yesterday with Xi, I suspect another US ‘delay’ is likely to occur. If not, then” Katy, bar the door! “”
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