Subject to the confirmation of still partial results, the dynamics of the ballot are pushing to the left (+10 points). The right (liberals + conservatives) is down eight points. The two main parties (Christian Democrats and Social Democrats), each with around 25% of the vote, represent half of the votes. The crumbling of votes and their best score obtained by environmentalists will lead to opening the game for a three-way marriage. At four, possibly, if it is the “Jamaica” -type coalition that wins. Or an alliance between the CDU (black) allied to the Bavarians of the CSU, the environmentalists of “Alliance 90-Die Grünen” (green) and the liberals of the FDP (yellow).
At least five teams are possible: “Everything is possible and nothing is excluded, except a participation of the extreme right. And that of the far left, because of the low score, ”summarizes Frank Baasner, of the Franco-German institute in Ludwigsburg. An extension of the “Grand Coalition”, whether led by the CDU or the SPD, seems doomed to play the spare wheels if the other combinations fail.
The substantive discussions will begin later this week. In the circle of experts, Albrecht von Lucke, of the “Cahiers de politique german et internationales”, is one of the few to foresee rapid negotiations. The political scientist, interviewed on the continuous news channel NTV, proceeds by elimination. He points to the historic decline recorded by the Christian Democrats, the worst score in their history. “If the results lead to a second place for the CDU, there will only be one possible coalition, the ‘traffic light’. In any case, the SPD is already the winner, ahead of the CDU which has always been ahead, for 16 years, by at least ten points ”.
The “traffic light” option holds the rope
Political scientist Andrea Römmele is also certain: “Candidate Olaf Scholz will favor a“ traffic light ”coalition with the Greens and the Liberals. The FDP has red lines against raising taxes for the better-off, which the Social Democrats and environmentalists are in favor of. But you cannot imagine the pressure for the Liberals. They cannot afford to derail the negotiations, as they did in 2017. Their credibility is at stake ”.
If the scores are confirmed and if the alliance is forged, the portfolio of Minister of Finance could go to Green Robert Habeck, more fluid than a liberal on the “Stability Pact”. With a lot of conditionality, Paris could breathe. “In any case, the parties of the new coalition will never have worked together at the federal level, so there will be a learning phase which will require a lot of patience on the part of the Germans and on the part of the partners of the ‘Germany,’ says Claudia Major, who heads the security and international politics department at the SWP think tank (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) in Berlin. Until then, still patience and nerves because the formations want to submit the coalition project to the vote of their militants. One thing is certain: the chancellor’s name is not for tomorrow.
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