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There’s a reason more than 200 legal Nevada sportsbooks have never had a losing season booking football, and why they make between $75 million and $125 million a year on football betting alone. The same winning pattern now exists for legal sports betting in 35 US states.
At least 85 percent of NFL bettors bet on favorites, and only 1 in 1,000 bettors make money betting on the NFL, which tells me bettors (who know it) are inflating the line to attract equal bets on both teams.
The top two teams in the NFL last year were the Chiefs and Eagles, who finished with a combined 28-6 straight record but were 15-19 combined in the regular season ATS.
If you bet on a favorite, you score more points than you should, especially on popular public teams. I expect the dogs in the NFL to bark loudly again throughout the season as the players don’t adjust to the 18-week grind.
Last year, all regular season underdogs were 54 percent over the spread (to break even, a bettor must average 52.4 percent against the ATS).
Here are my top tips for 2023:
Face the Super Bowl winner in the first four games of the season
They will be overrated, have a bloated line, and the public will be eager to bet on them.
Last year, the Rams were 1-3 ATS, and in 2021 the defending Super Bowl champion Tom Brady Buccaneers were also 1-3 ATS, combining for a record 2-6 gap over two years.
Bet against the Super Bowl winner in their first home game
It is a renowned festive occasion on Thursday evening (for the home team) which kicks off the new season. The commissioner is there, alongside fans and the national media, to salute the defending Super Bowl champions. Their opponent, overlooked by the media, will play hard to avoid being embarrassed like a sacrificial lamb.
Last year, the Super Bowl LVI champion Rams as two-point home underdogs were beaten by the Bills, 31-10.
In 2021, Tom-pa Bay was the favorite with nine points and barely outlasted Dallas, 21-19, and had the chance to win the game.
In regular season split rematches, bet against the team that beat the spread in their first meeting.
Double your bet if it’s a road split underdog. Philadelphia, as the road favorite with seven points, beat the Giants 48-22. In the rematch, even though the Giants rested all of their starters for the start of the playoffs the following week and Philadelphia needed the win to capture the No. 1 seed in the playoffs, the Eagles had struggling as home favorites with 17 points to win, 22-16. All that glitters isn’t gold.
Unleash the dogs!
Last year, road division underdogs and division dogs both made up 59 percent of the ATS. Both trends are set to continue into 2023. Don’t oppose it, even if you earn half as much as Roger Goodell.
In 2021, betting on underdogs by six points or less was a huge moneymaker, averaging 64.5% ATS.
In 2022, NFL dogs of 3.5 or more points made up 60% of the ATS.
An average of 55 percent ATS is considered a very profitable year.
Don’t bet on teasers
There’s a good reason they’re called teasers. They might look good, but your chances of beating them and making money are not. I’m going to slightly contradict myself by pointing out that two-team six-point teasers win if teasing an underdog of +1.5, +2, or +2.5 up to +7.5, +8, or 8, 5 or a favorite of 7.5, 8 or 8.5. at 1.5, 2 or 2.5 because you are capturing key numbers.
Same with parlays
Do not bet on them either, because more than a third of a bookmaker’s profits come from them. Two-team parlays pay 2.6/1 (true odds are 3:1); three-team parlays pay 6/1 (true odds are 7/1) and four-team parlays pay 10/1 (true odds are 15/1). You have as much chance of beating parlays as Giselle announcing on her Instagram page that she and Kim Jong Un have fallen in love.
Betting on the NFL?
Half time strategy
The bookmakers are posting a new point spread for the second half. Always bet at half time on which team you think will beat the front row in the original game. For example, if a 6-7 point underdog wins at halftime, take it back, because there is a good chance that if he covers the initial spread, he will also beat the spread at halftime . Note that it is often very difficult at half time to predict who will cover the home line, in which case they will cross over the half time line.
Compete against points spread teams that were successful last season
Bettors who underestimated them last year will adjust this year. The top teams in 2022 ATS were the Giants with a 13-4 record and the Lions with a 12-4-1 record.
Finally, do NOT bet on double digit favorites
They were 27-3 SU, but a miserable 11-19 ATS money loss last year (36.6 percent). Houston, one of the NFL’s worst teams, was a double-digit underdog five times last year and covered four of five (80 percent ATS), including two against Super Bowl teams, the Eagles and the Chiefs. The Texans’ only double-digit ATS loss last year was +14.5 in Miami, where they lost by 15. Hello!
Danny Sheridan has been handicapping football games nationwide for 36 years. He provided sports ratings for USA Today for 30 years and appears regularly on television, radio and in national newspapers.
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