NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
Democrats hold the edge on the Pennsylvania battleground as GOP candidates haven’t made the sale with Republican voters.
In the race for the US Senate, Democrat John Fetterman holds an 11-point lead over Republican Mehmet Oz, 47%-36%, in a Fox News poll released Thursday. Three percent support independent candidate Everett Stern and 13% support someone else or are undecided.
JOHN FETTERMAN ONCE SIGNED THE BAN DIVIDE PLEDGE, WHICH SUPPORTS TENS OF THOUSANDS OF PA JOBS
The candidates are vying for the seat of incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey.
A big issue for Oz is GOP support consolidation. With a margin of 16 points, fewer Republicans remain loyal to him (73%) than Democrats to Fetterman (89%). Same story on favorable ratings, as far more Democrats view Fetterman positively (88%) than Republicans view Oz (67%).
Only 35% of those who support Oz say they support it enthusiastically, while 45% have reservations. For Fetterman, 68% support him enthusiastically and only 18% are hesitant.
Both candidates have vulnerabilities — Oz is ridiculed as a New Jersey baggage handler, while Fetterman suffered a stroke earlier in the campaign. But twice as many people worry that Oz doesn’t know enough about the state to be an effective senator (52%) and that Fetterman isn’t healthy enough to serve (23%). This difference holds true among party loyalists, as about three times as many Republicans (22%) are worried about Oz being up to snuff than Democrats are about Fetterman (8%).
Oz is ahead by 8 points among men, 10 points among rural voters and 48 points among white evangelical Christians. Fetterman leads by 27 points among women, 33 points among moderates and 23 points among suburban voters.
Overall, Fetterman is better liked, with about half of voters having a favorable opinion of him (49% favorable, 34% unfavorable) and just over a third viewing Oz positively (35%-55%).
“It’s hard to underestimate the Herculean rehabilitation Oz must perform on himself to make this race competitive,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, whose firm Beacon Research is leading the Fox News survey with Republican Daron Shaw. . “Once voters decide they don’t like you, it’s hard to convince them otherwise. Unfortunately for voters in Pennsylvania, that likely means a heated negative campaign where Oz tries to bring down Fetterman.”
In 2020, President Biden narrowly won the Keystone state (by less than two percentage points), while former President Trump won the state by an even narrower margin (less than one point) in 2016. Today, Trump (44% favorable, 54% unfavorable) is a touch more popular among Pennsylvanians than Biden (42%-57%). A bigger difference is that 64% of Republicans have a very favorable opinion of Trump, while 40% of Democrats have this opinion of Biden.
Among the small subset of voters who hold a negative view of Biden and Trump, Fetterman is preferred over Oz by 30 points.
A bright spot for Oz may be on the issues. Inflation is the top concern for Pennsylvania voters, with 27% saying it will be most important in deciding their vote in the Senate — double the number who prioritize the second issue of abortion ( 14%). For 1 in 10, the main problem is electoral integrity/the right to vote (11%).
Inflation voters favor Oz (by 39 points), while those who prioritize abortion and voter integrity/voting rights go strongly for Fetterman (by 56 points and 35 points respectively).
Issue priorities split among Fetterman supporters, with the most saying abortion (21%), followed by election integrity/voting rights (14%), inflation (12%) and firearms (11%). In contrast, nearly half of those who support Oz say inflation is their biggest problem (45%) — and no other issues hit double digits.
“Pennsylvania is patient zero for the talking point that Republicans could lose the Senate by nominating flawed candidates,” Shaw said. “The mood is negative, the president’s ratings are poor, and the environment of issues favors the GOP, but their candidate is chasing 10 points because Republicans aren’t sure he’s capable of it.”
PENNSYLVANIA MAIL-IN VOTING LAW CHALLENGED BY REPUBLICANS
From a personal perspective, a majority of 52% say their financial situation is worse than two years ago, and 37% say it is about the same. Few Pennsylvanians, 10%, do better — and that only improves to 16% among Democrats.
In the race to replace term-limited Governor Tom Wolf, voters in Keystone back Democrat Josh Shapiro over Republican Doug Mastriano by a 50-40% margin.
CLICK HERE TO TOP LINE AND CROSS TABLES
Far more Shapiro supporters (69%) are enthusiastic about supporting him than those of Mastriano are (49%), and more voters overall have a favorable opinion of Shapiro (51% favorable , 34% unfavorable) than Mastriano (38%-48%).
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Conducted July 22-26, 2022 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with 908 registered voters in Pennsylvania randomly selected from a voter registry at the statewide and who spoke with investigators live on both landlines and cellphones. The total sample has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
Fox Gt