Governments plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels by 2030 than the level needed to limit global warming to the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a UN-backed study .
Many oil and gas producers plan to increase production and several coal producers plan to continue or increase production, according to the report.
Fossil fuel production is also 45% higher than what would be consistent with limiting warming to the less ambitious target of two degrees Celsius.
More than 80 researchers contributed to the study, which was supported by the United Nations Environment Program.
“The devastating effects of climate change are visible to everyone. There is still time to limit long-term warming to 1.5 ° C, but this window of opportunity is closing quickly, ”said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program. in a report.
Andersen called on governments to step up efforts and take action to close the “fossil fuel production gap” at the upcoming climate summit.
While many governments have pledged to cut emissions or set net zero targets, they have not reduced fossil fuel production, the study finds, saying that “output gap” has largely remained. unchanged since 2019.
A recent intergovernmental panel on climate change has warned that time is running out to limit warming.
Måns Nilsson, executive director of the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), stressed that “fossil fuel producing countries must recognize their role and responsibility in closing the production gap and steer us towards a climate secure future”.
“As countries increasingly commit to net zero emissions by mid-century, they must also recognize the rapid reduction in fossil fuel production that their climate goals will require,” he said. declared.
The report signals that G20 countries have spent nearly $ 300 billion (€ 258 billion) in new funds on fossil fuel-related activities since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic – more than they ever did. have moved towards clean energy.
China is expected to increase its oil and gas production by 5% and 58% and decrease its coal production by 8% by 2030; The US authorities predict that oil and gas production will increase by 17% and 12% respectively from 2019 levels by 2030, which “would go largely to exports”; while Moscow plans to increase gas and coal production by 38% and 52% respectively by 2035.
“The research is clear: Global production of coal, oil and gas must begin to decline immediately and sharply to be compatible with limiting long-term warming to 1.5 ° C,” said Ploy Achakulwisut, lead author of the UTE Scientific and Report, in a statement.
“However, governments continue to plan for and support levels of fossil fuel production that far exceed what we can safely burn,” he added.
The United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP26, is being held from October 31 to November 12 in Glasgow, where world leaders will meet to discuss climate change.