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According to a Civey poll for “Der Spiegel” released on Thursday, 25% of voters would vote for Olaf Scholz, while his rival, Armin Laschet, would get 23% of the vote. According to the director of the Franco-German Institute (DFI) in Ludwigsburg, Frank Baasner, “the uncertainty about the end result has never been greater for a long time. The directors of the polling institutes I spoke to warn: the margin of error, theoretically 2.5%, would rather be around 4% or 5% this time ”. At issue: the great volatility of voters who often wait until the last moment to make up their minds.

A survey conducted personally and without scientific pretension confirms this: out of ten Berliners of voting age questioned at random, of all ages and all social classes, on their vote, only four were 100% sure of their choice for this Sunday.

“The difficulty of choosing after Merkel”

The other voters put forward “the difficulty of choosing after Merkel” between the “main candidates not really convincing” or “the lack of balance sheet of the pandemic”, considered by this fifties as the main stake of the poll, but completely neglected during debates. Polling institutes confirm this high proportion of undecided, gauged between one in three or four voters!

Spike in postal voting

The coronavirus crisis had a side effect: the surge in postal voting. Several months ago, the Federal Election Commissioner gave a first estimate of the number of Germans who would vote by mail. His prognosis was twice as high as on the last election day in 2017, when it was already nearly 29%. Last week Georg Thiel confirmed his foreboding: “The feedback I have from the constituencies seems to prove me right”.

These ballots being counted with the others, after the closing of the polling stations at 6 p.m., the exit polls will therefore probably not reflect the official results which will be announced overnight.

Association of three parties?

The emerging trend is that the Germans, with the fear of emptiness after 16 years of Merkel rule, want some form of continuity. As the CDU / CSU and the SPD have governed together for the past eight years, the two parties find it difficult to differentiate themselves.

With all the reservations already indicated, the Civey / Spiegel poll puts the environmentalists at 16%, the liberals (FDP) at 11%, the Alternative for Germany at 10% and the far left at 6%. With the scattering of votes, it will undoubtedly be necessary for three parties to join forces to find a majority. A first in the history of the Federal Republic for 64 years, during which social and Christian Democrats shared power with a single ally.

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