Several political experts and pollsters have issued stark warnings about President Biden as several polls show him losing to Donald Trump in key areas, as a Democratic pollster said in a November survey of voters. voters showed “gloomy” results.
New York Times opinion columnist Thomas Edsall spoke to several pollsters, analysts and others about a poll conducted by Democracy Corps, a Democratic advisory group founded by James Carville and Stan Greenberg. The group conducted a survey of 2,500 voters between November 5 and 11.
Greenberg, according to Edsall, summarized the findings in an email and wrote, “this is grim.”
Among the Democratic voting base, “Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, the LGBTQ+ community, Gen Z, millennials, singles and college women give Trump higher approval ratings than Biden,” Greenberg told the Times columnist.
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The survey found that Biden and Democrats were just two points ahead on “the president will not be an autocrat,” and just one on “protecting democracy.”
“There was a tie on the question of making democracy safer,” Edsall wrote. “Democrats, who plan to demonize Trump as a threat to democracy, are particularly concerned about the advantages Trump and Republicans have in opposing extremism (3 points), overcoming chaos (6 points), and protecting the Constitution (8 points).”
Other analysts and political scientists told Edsall it didn’t look good for the president.
Jim Kessler, senior vice president of the left-leaning think tank Third Way, told Edsall there were clear danger signs, despite falling gas prices and falling inflation rates.
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“Biden won in 2020 because he was seen as having a more positive image than the Democratic Party,” Kessler said. “That brand advantage over the Democratic Party is now gone. Exhibits A and B are crime and immigration.”
Kessler said voters aren’t hearing “anything” from the president on any of these issues because it divides the Democratic base.
“But if you stay silent on these issues, it’s like an admission of guilt to voters. They think you don’t care or are ignoring their very real concerns. That means Biden has to accept some recriminations from the left for make this story known to the vast community,” he continued.
Ryan Enos, a political scientist at Harvard, told Edsall that Biden would “probably lose” if the election were held today.
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Another political scientist, Rogers Smith, said Biden’s “visible infirmities interfere with his ability to reassure the electorate,” Edsall wrote.
“This belief is reinforced by the fact that Biden does not inspire confidence in his vigor or energy in most of his public presentations. The problem is particularly acute among young voters but concerns the entire electorate, Democrats and Republicans. That means voters don’t “I don’t give a lot of weight to Biden’s arguments on these issues,” he said.
However, Smith said, Democrats were “trapped.”
“No one will challenge Biden; he must choose to step aside. If he did, he would feel obligated to support Kamala Harris. But most Democrats, and probably Biden himself, rightly believe she would still worse than him.” he added.