Covid-19: Can the current vaccination rate prevent a potential fourth wave? – Coronavirus

A little ahead of schedule, the symbolic bar of 30 million French people vaccinated with a first dose should be reached at the end of the week and the government wants to maintain this momentum during the summer, to prevent a potential fourth wave of covid-19 .

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With a daily rate of nearly 400,000 first-time vaccines, the target of 57% of the adult population having had at least one dose in mid-June is getting closer. Thursday evening, Public Health France announced that 29,444,218 people had received at least one injection (56.1% of the major population), and that nearly 15 million were fully vaccinated, or a fifth of the population. The pace of vaccination remains sustained, with constant progress in the 50-59 and 60-69 age groups, and a “very strong” increase (+ 6% since the opening at the end of May) among 18-49 age groups. years.

The head of the Ile-de-France Health Agency, Aurélien Rousseau, however, noted a recent slowdown in appointments. “Small alert and stroke of emotion: there are still vaccination slots in many centers,” he tweeted Wednesday, calling for “to score decisive points against the virus”.

Ceiling for those over 75

Friday, the doctor and former television journalist Jean-Daniel Flaysakier also mentioned in a tweet “more and more slots not taken”, worrying that “vaccination seems to interest less and less people in Touraine” . Internet users have raised organizational issues as the summer holidays approach, linked to the obligation to be vaccinated in the same center, which forces them to make clever calculations to meet the deadlines between injections.

Continue to make appointments, go find your friends, relatives, acquaintances, people who sometimes hesitate

For the moment until the end of June, the Doctolib site does not foresee a drop in the rate of injections, which should remain at a high level of nearly 600,000 per day. “There is a ceiling in the over 75s, at around 80% of vaccinated”, despite local initiatives to collect and vaccinate them at home, said epidemiologist Pascal Crépey, interviewed by AFP . Daniel Levy-Bruhl, of the French Public Health agency, recognized “a point of concern”, because vaccinations progress “by 1% but not more” in the oldest subjects, which “is insufficient”. Especially since a single dose is not enough to ensure optimal protection.

Welcoming phase two of deconfinement this week, which consisted in reopening closed places (inside bars, restaurants, sports halls, swimming pools, among others), President Emmanuel Macron launched an appeal to the non-vaccinated. “Continue to make appointments, go find your friends, your relatives, your acquaintances, people who sometimes hesitate, who are the furthest from care and who are the most fragile,” he said.

A dreaded fourth wave in the fall

Authorities fear a fourth wave in the fall. Prof. Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the covid-19 scientific committee, believes that it would probably be “different” from the previous ones because it will face the “vaccine block” which should slow the progression of the new Delta variant (previously called “Indian “).

But with only 20 to 25% of vaccinated, “we are very far from collective immunity and 80%” of immunized, even adding the 20% who had covid, warned on BFM Friday Gilles Pialoux, head of the infectious diseases department at Tenon hospital in Paris. According to him, “we will not be able to do without a vaccination obligation” for the 50% of nurses, nursing assistants, etc … not yet protected.

The authorities have planned a new vaccination campaign before the summer holidays and stress that there is no shortage in sight for the doses. For July and August, “we’ll have a massive number of doses coming in. So we will have to organize ourselves to vaccinate at a very high level throughout the summer, ”we indicated this week to the Ministry of Health.

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