I’ve been using this meme for a while and it basically explains everything that’s going on in the markets right now. I hate to over-interpret moves around the corner, but these get too big to ignore.
The bond market is shouting that we have already seen a spike in inflation while equities are increasingly worried about growth (yet not yet supported by lower rates).
The Fed funds market is now down 55% for 75 bps and 45% for 50 bps. Looking further ahead, the terminal rate is collapsing, with futures peaking at 3.21%, down from 3.50% yesterday and +4% just two weeks ago.