It’s a familiar start to the new week as stocks are more bullish again and we’ve all seen how things turned out in the second half of last week. Some dovish talk from the Fed on Friday was what really helped ensure a solid week of gains and the positive momentum continues, at least for now. But when we look at the S&P 500 chart:
We are now challenging the October 5 high at 3,806, which may offer minor resistance, before reaching the 100-day moving average (red line) at around 3,914. That said, the series of lower highs and lower lows persists and this is the major pattern/trend that still needs to be respected.
With key central bank meetings in focus, traders and investors will also need to pay attention to the bond market. For now, treasury yields are below their recent highs, providing some comfort to equities. However, the long term is still a bit uncertain and something to consider as we head into the FOMC meeting in two weeks.
Either way, the technical data still suggests that even though sentiment has improved over the past week, we are still not quite close to a major reversal in the downtrend. It will now be a question of determining what central banks have to offer before deciding on the next steps.