Abstention remains the major fact of these two elections, departmental and regional. 66% of voters chose not to speak during the second round, against 66.7% in the first round.
The explanations are certainly multiple, from the ignorance of the real role of the assemblies subjected to renewal, to the general dissatisfaction caused by the political offer. It is indeed a challenge that voters throw at the political class as a whole. To the point that it would probably be futile to hope that the renewed attention usually enjoyed by the presidential election suffices to erase the deep democratic malaise thus revealed.
For the right, the good surprise of the second round is obviously, in Paca, the success of Renaud Muselier. Preceded, in the first round, by the list of the National Rally led by Thierry Mariani, he obtained, this time, nearly 57% of the votes. The mobilization of his voters, but also the withdrawal from the left and environmentalist list, greatly helped him.
Still, the right remains dominant in the French regions, since it retains its seven presidencies. Without the incumbents referring to the same political line. Where Laurent Wauquiez frankly hunted on the themes of the National Rally, to obtain 55% of the votes in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Valérie Pécresse focused, between the two rounds, on denouncing the contradictions of the list of his opposition , led by the ecologist Julien Bayou. Which earned her to be re-elected with 45% of the vote.
Both are already looking towards the presidential election, aware, however, that Xavier Bertrand has taken a chronological lead that could weigh. It was he who was the first to speak on television on Sunday evening. Satisfied with a score of 53% which left little doubt, he especially addressed himself well beyond his voters in Hauts-de-France.
The left may be grateful for its outgoing regional presidents. Especially when they have been able to remain faithful to their action, even if it means refusing alliances with environmentalists and / or rebels. This is the case of Alain Rousset, reelected in New Aquitaine. Or Carole Delga, who is widely needed in Occitania.
The situation is different where the left tried to conquer. The separate lists from the first round have often given environmentalists a slim lead. This forced the PS, whose current leadership advocates a union at all costs, to rallies which, in the second round, did not produce any real momentum. The typical example is Ile-de-France where the ecologist, Julien Bayou, only obtains a little more than 34%. Same scenario for Mathieu Orphelin who, in Pays-de-La-Loire, leans behind the outgoing Republican, Christelle Mor Anglais. Conversely, the union pays off when it is led by an outgoing socialist, like François Bonneau, in Center -Val de Loire, or Marie-Guitte Dufay, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté.
It hoped to take over several regions and, after the first round, would have been very happy with Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur. Marine Le Pen is only entitled to a dotted zero. To the point that his presence in the second round of the presidential election, which was nevertheless given for granted, could be called into question.
Should this be seen as a failure of its demonization strategy? This is what will not fail to proclaim his opponents who, in his own camp, will sound the hallali. This would be neglecting her authority over her party and her ability to overcome perilous situations, as she demonstrated after 2017. Moreover, if her favorite themes – insecurity, immigration, etc. – did not have the impact it hoped for during these regional events, they can still prove to be dangerously effective in the context of a national campaign.
Wherever we turn, the lone rider of the Republic in March, which had already resulted in a resounding failure in the first round, continues in the manner of a steep descent, in this second round. We have thus seen Emmanuel Macron, a voter in Hauts-de-France, tacitly forced to vote for Xavier Bertrand, who nevertheless promises to be a potential rival of the most serious for 2020.
In Île-de-France, where sociology is considered particularly favorable to Walkers, they still lose one point to 11%.
The elements of language dictated to the macronists may well insist on the non-correlation between the ballots, or even underline the popularity rating of the Head of State, much higher than that of his two predecessors at the same time of the quinquennium, he will be everything. it is also difficult not to take into account this inability of the Walkers to anchor themselves in the territories.
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