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breaking news Nifty 50 looks to stay above 17,000 ahead of the Fomc meeting this week

Nirmal Bang’s Rahul Arora expects the Nifty 50 to trade in the 16,000-18,000 range with a downside bias, adding that even at levels of 16,000 stocks can be expensive.

25 basis points? 50 basis points? or no hike at all? Questions and theories abound as the US Federal Reserve meets this week to determine which direction interest rates are headed.

While a Fed meeting is not uncommon, this one comes in the wake of immense turmoil within the US banking system. The collapse of two regional banks may simply prompt the FOMC to slow the pace of rate hikes, even if macro data suggests otherwise.

The Nifty 50 has been the worst underperformer since the crisis began, although it has no connection to developments on the Seven Seas. Since the March 8 close, the index is down more than 4%, while US benchmarks on Wall Street have fallen 1-2%.

The problem with the Nifty 50 was not the developments in the United States; of course there is an impact on sentiment, but locally the heavyweights just didn’t perform. Whether it’s HDFC twins, Reliance Industries, ITC or tech names like TCS and Infosys, all played their part in driving the index from 17,799 to 16,850 in just seven sessions.

There is no denying that the market has been extremely volatile. The Nifty 50 traded in a 200-point range on Friday and a third of its 114-point gain came from the HDFC twins in the final minutes of trading after the NCLT approved their merger.

While the FOMC will do what it does, the Nifty 50 is hoping for two things this week: One – 17,000 is respected on the downside, which continues to be a psychologically important level, and two – it manages to make a bottom. intraday above the 17,000 mark, which it has failed to do in the past four sessions.

However, Rahul Arora of Nirmal Bang thinks people don’t buy the market, they buy stocks. He sees the Nifty 50 trading in the 16,000-18,000 range with a downward bias, adding that even at levels of 16,000 stocks can be expensive.

What do the graphs suggest for Dalal Street?

On the weekly charts, the Nifty 50 has formed a long bearish candle with a lower shadow, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He now sees 16,850 as the final “low” in the lower upper, lower lower sequence of the Nifty 50. Shetti also expects the Nifty 50 to move towards the next resistance at 17,300 – 17,350 with immediate support at 16,950.

SAMCO Securities’ Rohan Patil does not expect the Nifty 50 rally to last long as prices may experience resistance at higher levels. Only a sustained close above 17,300 – 17,350 can take the index to 17,500 or higher, he said. However, on the downside, if the index falls below 16,850, Patil expects a drop towards the 16,450 – 16,400 levels.

The Nifty Bank Index has formed a morning star on the daily chart and may see a rebound towards 40,000, in case it holds 39,000 on the downside, according to LKP Securities’ Kunal Shah. In case the index moves above 40,000, it could even trigger a rally towards 41,000, he said.

Here are the key things to know in the market ahead of the March 20 trading session:

On Monday, Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) Nifty futures – an early indicator of the Nifty 50 index – fell 117 points or 0.68% to 17,045, indicating a lower open for the market. .

Benchmarks fell on Friday as regional banks resumed losses. The Dow Jones lost nearly 400 points and even gave up all of the week’s gains.

The S&P 500 fell 1.1% but managed weekly gains of almost 1.5%. The Nasdaq, despite Friday’s losses, posted weekly gains of 4.41%, posting its best week since Jan. 13.

What to expect in Dalal Street

Angel One’s Osho Krishnan also sees 16,900 – 16,850, the recent Nifty 50 low as key support on the downside. He expects any relief in global markets to provide a catalyst for the market to rise. “Traders are advised to avoid aggressive bets and seek equity-specific stocks, while investors could now take advantage of this opportunity by initiating an accumulation in good, blue-chip companies in a staggered fashion,” he said. he declares.

The Nifty 50 has formed a doji pattern followed by a recovery candle on the daily chart, indicating the possibility of a bullish reversal, according to Rupak De of LKP Securities. He expects the Nifty 50 to head towards 17,500 – 17,600 in case it achieves a sustained close above 17,250.

Key levels to monitor

For this week’s options expiry, the Nifty 50’s 17,200 strike call added 26.2 lakh shares to Open Interest, while the 17,100 call added 20.17 lakh shares. actions. 19.26 lakh shares were also added by the call of 17,300.

On the downside, the 17,100 put added 24.26 lakh shares in Open Interest, followed by the 17,000 put, which added 20.2 lakh shares. The 16,800 put added 17.5 lakh shares, while the 16,900 put added 12.3 lakh shares in Open Interest.

The Nifty 50 put-call ratio remains at 0.87 from 0.88 on Thursday. Indiabulls Housing Finance and GNFC remain in the F&O ban.

FII/DII activity

Long accumulation (price increase and open interest)

StockCurrent IOCPMPrice changeChange of OI
Capital Aditya Birla3,50,40,6001553.85%8.84%
Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories21,88,1254,460.751.42%7.35%
Bajaj Auto11,91,5003816.850.43%6.98%
AMC HDFC32,08,8001,6950.17%6.41%

Short accumulation (decrease in price and increase in open interest)

StockCurrent IOCPMPrice changeChange of IO
India Cements1,50,39,400189.2-2.30%5.54%

Short cover (increase in price and decrease in open interest)

StockCurrent IOCPMPrice changeChange of IO
Nestle India2,32,32018,8842.11%-11.07%
JK cement3 98 2502,829.301.07%-6.68%
Gujarat Gas40,87,500504.251.20%-5.65%


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