breaking news EURUSD advances at the end of the week

In today’s trading, the EURUSD rose in the Asian session, fell in the European morning session and is up in the US session.

The move took the price positive on the week (it closed at 1.0636 last Friday). Ironically, last week’s close sits right in the middle of the week’s trading range. However, this week the pair has had its share of ups and downs.

• On Monday, the price first moved higher than lower and then moved back higher
• On Tuesday, the trend was lower to higher.
• On Wednesday, after hitting a new high for the week at 1.07592, the price fell as low as 1.05147 as Credit Suisse became a catalyst and provided a tailwind to the downside. ECB easing expectations were taken into account.
• On Thursday, the ECB raised rates by 50 basis points more than expected. Once again it was a volatile day up, down and up. The price closed higher.
• Today, once again, the price has gone up and down and up. The final move higher took the pair to new intraday highs.

Technically, today’s price rise has now seen the pair extend above its 100 hourly moving average at 1.06583, and the 61.8% retracement of the week’s trading range at 1.06658.

Today’s catalysts were lower US rates, which weakened the US dollar. The two-year yield is now down 30 basis points to 3.831%. The 10-year yield is down 20 basis points to 3.382%. Yesterday, the rate trend was the opposite, with US yields moving up.

And now?

The more positive bias above the 100 hourly moving average 1.0658. At the top, there is a swing zone between 1.06908 and 1.0704. Exceeding this area would increase the bullish bias.

Alternatively, return below 100 hours moving average

Moving average

A moving average is a statistical tool used to smooth short-term fluctuations in data and reveal longer-term trends. It is calculated by taking the average of a number of data points over a specific period of time and then plotting that average as a line on a graph. The most common types of moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). In financial markets, moving averages are often used to analyze stock prices, exchange rates, etc.

A moving average is a statistical tool used to smooth short-term fluctuations in data and reveal longer-term trends. It is calculated by taking the average of a number of data points over a specific period of time and then plotting that average as a line on a graph. The most common types of moving averages are simple moving averages (SMA) and exponential moving averages (EMA). In financial markets, moving averages are often used to analyze stock prices, exchange rates, etc.
Read this term then below the 200 hourly moving average 1.06278, and the sellers regain control.

Next week the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks around the world, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the United States. The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its large impact on the US dollar. Originally founded in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the

The Federal Reserve System, more commonly known as the Fed, represents the central banking system of the United States. Like other central banks around the world, the Fed is responsible for monetary policy, in this case in the United States. The Fed is one of the most watched and followed entities for forex traders, given its large impact on the US dollar. Originally founded in 1913, the Fed was created to perform a wide range of functions. This includes stabilizing and maintaining flexible monetary policy in the
Read this term will meet and announce their rate decision on Wednesday. They will also release the dot chart on rate expectations.

Currently, the terminal rate implied by the market is less than 5% at 4.95%. Recall that in December, when the last dot chart was announced, Fed officials had pegged the terminal rate at 5.11%. Traders therefore took a rise of 25 basis points from this month of December. That said, a week or two ago, expectations for the terminal rate were up towards 5.75%. People were talking about a terminal rate of 6% or more.

That’s more dovish of course, but even more dovish is the January 2024 futures contract which now implies the Fed will cut rates to 3.95%. This is a drop of about 100 basis points from the terminal rate.

Before the Fed went into blackout, the comments were about the Fed pushing rates towards 5.25% (and for some above) and then flat rates for a long time (and certainly not until the end of 2023). Now the market sees the Fed rate cut 100 basis points.

Wednesday will certainly be an interesting day. The volatility seen this week can certainly be a precursor to what we can expect.