FactualIn a context of historically low turnout, the first round of departmental elections gives the right a lead in more than half of the cantons.
Marked by a participation at the lowest – only 33.35% of those registered came – the first round of the departmental elections of Sunday, June 20 gives an advance of the right in a large northern and eastern fringe of France.
In detail, concerning the 2,028 French cantons:
- in 119 cantons, a pair was elected in the first round;
- in 1,905 cantons, two pairs will face off in a duel on June 27;
- only two cantons will see three pairs compete against each other;
- in two cantons, finally, where only one pair was present, a second round will still be necessary for lack of sufficient participation.
- The right and the center in the lead in more than half of the cantons
The right-wing pairs came out on top in 802 cantons, those in the center in 387, spread over a large northern and eastern half of the country. 700 pairs of the left (on a wide spectrum ranging from communists to pairs of union of the left and environmentalists, including the Socialist Party, PS) came out on top, mainly grouped together in the south-western quarter of France , but also scattered, for example in Brittany, in the center of Burgundy, in the north of Pas-de-Calais or in the south of Seine-Maritime. The far right took the lead in 74 cantons (including 72 for the National Rally, RN). 10 cantons were won by environmental pairs.
- A pair elected in 5.86% of the cantons
Out of all the cantons, a pair was elected in the first round in 119 of them. The majority of these pairs elected in the first round presented themselves under right-wing labels: 35 various right and 20 Les Républicains (LR) and union of the right.
The left, for its part, won 45 cantons: 26 various left, 14 PS, 4 union of the left and 1 Radical party of the left. Fifteen cantons were acquired by the center in the first round, including 9 various centers and 6 union centrists. No canton was won in the first round by the RN.
- An insufficient absolute majority for lack of participation in 612 cantons
In more than a third of the cantons, 731 to be exact, a pair came out on top with more than the majority of the votes cast, ie more than 50% of the votes. But to be elected in the first round, a pair must obtain 50% of the votes cast and represent at least a quarter of the voters registered in the canton. A crippling condition in 612 cantons due to the low participation – against 5 in 2015.
The RN duo of Marine Le Pen and Steeve Briois at Hénin-Beaumont-2 could have been elected on Sunday with 61.1% of the votes cast if he had managed to represent more than 25% of those registered, instead of 19.6 % of yesterday.
In the cantons of Delle, in the Territoire de Belfort, and Sainte-Rose-2, in Guadeloupe, a unique pair appeared. They obtained 100% of the votes cast, but for the same reasons, voters will again be called upon to vote on this unique pair, for lack of participation.
- A second round almost exclusively of duels, with the RN in 30% of cases
In almost all of the cantons in which a second round will take place on Sunday (1,909), it will be a duel between two pairs (1,905). This year, only two triangular will take place, in Tarn-et-Garonne and Mayotte. As a reminder, 278 triangulars were held in 2015.
This year, the RN will participate in more than a quarter of these duels (570) and take the lead in 72 of them at the end of the first round. The map below shows the anchoring of the RN, particularly in the Paris basin and around the Mediterranean arc.