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breaking news Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker at 5% vs. 6.8% on Jan 10

Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 growth drops to 5%

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 GDP growth fell to 5% from 6.8% after the disappointing retail sales report this morning. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2021 is 5.0 percent on January 14, against 6.8% on January 10. After the January 10 GDPNow update and subsequent releases from the US Census Bureau, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, and Federal Reserve Board of Governors, a decrease in the forecast immediate forecast of growth in real personal consumption expenditure in the fourth quarter from 4.5% to 2.0% was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of growth in real gross private domestic investment in the fourth quarter of 17 .8% to 18.1%. Moreover, the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter fell from 0.21 percentage point to 0.19 percentage point.

The next estimate will take place on Wednesday, January 19.


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