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2022 presidential election poll: candidate tracking

Several months before the 2022 presidential election, the polls are already taking an important part in the campaign. A candidate who collapses here, another who flies away there. However, the road is still far before election day and everything can still be turned upside down.

To see more clearly, we offer you this interactive tool for monitoring opinion polls in real time. Thanks to our aggregator, find out what position candidates occupy in the polls over the published opinion polls. Also observe their dynamics in the election campaign. This dashboard of electoral surveys is updated every day.

Which candidate is leading the polls?

According to the latest polls, Emmanuel Macron (La République en Marche) is at the top of the smoothed voting intentions for the first round of the 2022 presidential election, with 26% of the vote. If this trend were confirmed in the election, he would face, in the second round, Marine Le Pen (National Assembly), which records 19.1% of the vote in the current dynamic. At the foot of the podium would appear Eric Zemmour (Independent), who counts the support of 14.2% of the voters.

Here is where each candidate stands in the voting intentions, according to the most recent surveys. We have deliberately calculated a smoothed trend – see our methodology – in order to simplify the observation of a dynamic despite the differences in each survey conducted by the polling institutes (candidates tested, hypotheses tested, irregularity of the surveys).

According to latest polls, candidates belonging to the radical left capped at 14.3% of voting intentions. Those on the left total 14.3%. The center, represented by Emmanuel Macron, is at 26%. The votes on the right gather 32% of the intentions. Those of the sovereignist right jump to 35.9%.

What is the evolution of the polls in the 2022 presidential campaign?

As the campaign progresses, opinions change. Some candidates pay the price and collapse in the polls. Others manage to pull out of the game. To analyze these evolutions over time, we offer you a trend history since September 2020 for each candidate.

You can filter the appearance of candidates in our aggregator below. What does it show? It makes it possible to observe the overall trend that emerges for each candidate. This graph offers smooth curves, thanks to a statistical method (see our methodology at the end of the article), from the different voting intentions of each survey. This allows one to focus on the more general dynamics of each candidate in the polls, rather than on each new estimate of voting intent.

What were the polls saying in 2017?

It is sometimes thought that opinion polls make the election. In reality, the outcome of the ballot is not always what we imagined. The case of the 2017 campaign is emblematic: in turn, Alain Juppé, François Fillon and Marine Le Pen were announced by the polling institutes as having to come first on the evening of the first round. Ultimately, it was Emmanuel Macron who won. Nothing is therefore written in advance: an unforeseen event can upset the announced projections. However, as the election date draws closer, the opinion polls are becoming more and more precise.

Our methodology

Where does this survey data come from? The graphs and figures on this page are based on the results of surveys from several institutes, compiled in the NspPolls project. The results of each survey are shown by a point in the trend graph. These are only voting intentions, that is to say surveys in which respondents answer a question such as: “If the first round took place on Sunday, who would you vote for?”

How is the trend calculated? Depending on the candidates proposed and the methods of the institutes, the same personality can be credited with very different levels of voting intentions depending on the polls. To better observe the dynamics, beyond the figures of a one-off survey, the graphs on this page show a smoothed trend in the voting intentions attributed to a personality, over the course of the surveys. A statistical method (the local LOESS regression) makes it possible to develop a curve which is closest to the trend drawn by the various hypotheses. The same calculation is applied to the margins of error to show them.

Do all candidates appear? For the moment, the multiplicity of potential candidates generates significant disparities between the candidates proposed in the surveys. To allow dynamic monitoring and to facilitate reading, we are not considering official or potential applications here that are tested often enough for a trend to emerge. All the personalities totaling at least 1% of the voting intentions appear.

What you need to know about opinion polls

The political polls arouse a lot of mistrust. But at the same time, they are scrutinized a lot. And commented on. Here are some methodological points to remember to take a step back on the voting intentions supposedly from the French.

What is a survey?

A survey is a tool that assesses the state of opinion, at a specific moment, on a subject and on a territory. This assessment tries to represent a miniature version of this territory, using a sample of the population. This sample is constructed from quotas allowing the distribution of the population to be reproduced by sex, categories of activities, age, type of municipality, etc. National trends are then established from these representative samples.

How are surveys conducted?

Several survey methods exist. Currently, opinion polls are most often carried out using internet panels. Concretely, hundreds of thousands of Internet users have given their consent to participate in surveys. These people are approached according to the needs of the sample in terms of gender, age, socio-professional categories, region, in order to be representative of the target population. In exchange for their participation, they can receive certain rewards. The methods of composition of the panel and of answering the questionnaires may vary and affect the results, which is why the mention of the method used is mandatory to support the dissemination of the results.

Who buys surveys?

The surveys are carried out for both public and private clients. The government, local authorities, companies, associations or the media are all actors who can order a survey. These surveys include voting intentions barometers, which aim to measure a trend in the same way, at different time intervals. The results can be published, in particular by the media which order them, or remain for internal use of a company or a party which wishes to evaluate its image or the reception of certain proposals.

What is a margin of error and why is it important?

Margins of error are a statistical term used to define the range in which a result falls. If we asked all French people, the margin of error would necessarily be zero. But, as soon as results are calculated on samples, they are subject to margins of error. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error and, conversely, the larger it is, the smaller it is. Thus, on a sample of 1000 respondents, the margin of error is around 2.5 points. In this case, if a candidate achieves a voting intention score of 20%, their score is actually between 17.5 and 22.5%. The results of voting intentions are presented as an absolute value, but they oscillate within the interval set by the margin of error. On this page, the margins of error appear next to the absolute value.

Are the polls a prediction?

In no case, obviously. This is not their purpose: polls do not aim to predict the outcome of an election, but to measure the situation at a precise moment. Looking at them over a long period of time allows us to draw an evolution by taking into account the events, political or otherwise, which may accompany a change in opinion. This is the whole purpose of our aggregator.

Our latest articles on surveys

2022 presidential election poll: candidate tracking

Journalists: Nicolas Arzur, Blandine Le Cain
Technical design: Florian Hillion, Audrey Jaouen, Yoann Peron

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Not all news on the site expresses the point of view of the site, but we transmit this news automatically and translate it through programmatic technology on the site and not from a human editor.